100plo. Top pair with not great kickers on Ace high board in 3 way 3 bet pot.
Posted by jimmyhat1000
Posted by jimmyhat1000 posted in Low Stakes
100plo. Top pair with not great kickers on Ace high board in 3 way 3 bet pot.
HJ: $242.98
CO: $89
BN: $112.83
SB: $135.65 (Hero)
HJ calls $1, CO folds, BN raises to $4.50, Hero calls $4, BB raises to $19, HJ folds, BN calls $14.50, Hero calls $14.50
Preflop 3 bettor is 33/21/11 over 2k hands. 3 betting 11% from the big blind. He c-bets 62% in 3 bet pots.
This board obviously hits his range a lot harder than mine and the buttons. However, if villain has missed the flop / doesn't have an ace two things happen;
1) He has a zero equity hand very often. There are some good turns for his KQJT, QJT9 hands but not a lot.
2) From his point of view, the chances of either the button or us, the sb, having an ace go up a lot.
I think both of these factors make it less likely he c bets with air, although I wouldn't say he is bet / folding the flop never.
On the flop we have 31% against a range of 11%:(A, 88, 22). If we jam and he calls we are putting 116.5bb into a 291bb pot so will need 40%. We are losing 26.5bb every time villian calls with that range. However every time we jam and he folds we are gaining 94bb so he needs to fold to our jam 28% of the time to break even.
So, does anyone think he is bet folding the flop 28% of the time or more? Or is his c bet pretty much always a hand with an ace in it?
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