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100plo river spot with AA

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100plo river spot with AA

http://weaktight.com/5437718

flop i would rather bet 1/2 pot yea?
river?

20 Comments

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whoisangel 12 years, 2 months ago
I think the Flop bet its fine. River i prefer checking here. I don't see him coming to the river with no T in his Hand. Because AA, AT is still in your Range. I don't think that he will bluff you off this hand
Aleksandra ZenFish 12 years, 2 months ago
river v nice :) i disagree taking quads into account when playing plo~ that way you wont get maximum value out of your high fullhouses , just raise=take as much as you can, and when you lose to quads you will lose it anyway and it will happen so rarely ( 1 in 1000) so its not worth making changes into way you bet or valuing
Tom Coldwell 12 years, 2 months ago
Not taking quads into account in PLO is a pretty big error, especially in situations such as this. It's one thing being willing to stack off AA on ATT, it's another entirely thinking there's value in jamming the river when he has so many Ts in his range and the third one has rolled off.
Aleksandra ZenFish 12 years, 2 months ago
http://propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=TcAdTs2dTh&g=oh&h1=AhAc3cKs&h2=xxxx&s=generic
i know its way bigger equity then in nolimit, yet 90 percent equity wont make me stop valueing my high full houses because of something that will happen once in 10 times
if i dont value im losing for example 10 times pot bet that would be called off lets say 5 times on avarage and im stacking off once
if i dont value it out of those 5 calls im losing 2-3 to a check so my overoll profit for my high fullhouses becomes insignificant because of scare of quads
To add ~ even nitty play cant save you from stacking off because face with a bet ~ what will you do as one? and to add as second~ i hit high fullhouse twice last year~ and raised got in rererereraises and i lost AA hand on A27 board to runnin quads 2 after shoved on flop to allin, and same happened to me with QQ on Q59 board where i lost to runna 5 quads that outted
I played loads and i think maybe 2 quads i saw more but this time in my hand, so evens it out . im not playin 12 hours a day but those are examples when i played zoom 4-5 hours a day a month
So over what math tells me and experience i dont think its worth thinking about
whoisangel 12 years, 2 months ago
I dont think its right to use XXXX vs the Hand on this exact Board. Because he will not call the Flop with XXXX and sure not the Turn with XXXX.
So what are the Hands you will Call flop and call turn? What hands do you have on the river?
Tom Coldwell 12 years, 2 months ago
Aleksandra, you're not really thinking about this properly imo. Whilst yes, quads are unlikely if we take four random cards, this isn't the situation we are in. Our opponents don't have random cards by the river, they have cards they wanted to call twice with making quads vastly more likely. On top of that, when we value-bet, it's not just because we think we have the best hand, but because we think >50% of the calls we get will be from worse hands. I, and it appears the majority of other people posting in this thread, believe that it is VERY hard for villain to reach this river with a hand which is both worse than ours and capable of calling us if we bet making a value-bet an error. We obviously can't bluff with the second nuts so there is no reason to bet here. We are both mindful of the possibility of villain holding quads and aware of the minimal likelihood of our bet achieving anything beneficial.
Aleksandra ZenFish 12 years, 2 months ago
I might be silly in some of my plays, your opinion has very solid thinking background quality as always, and as you said we cant get value of worst , but leaning me towards value is way hand is played~ no preflop 4-5 betting, not full pot betting on other streets so i dont think opponent can actually feel the strenght of our hand and may put us on a bluff, and opponent stack size indicate me fish that might call off with worse .
Being not call by worse usually against better opponents maybe good argument to let opponent bet into us as a bluff or eventually nuts but silly me is calling off here :S :)
Ill try put more tight sound logic that you usually have though in my other plays, in this one in particular i think most people disagree with me so far but im still kinda sticking to it thinking im right, maybe due to low blinds im playing ATM, and if i have a exploitable leak in my play i like to correct it usually but this 1 i think i can allow myself to have being too rare for opponents to know they can exploit such situations in particular even when i change the blinds
Sean Fri 12 years, 2 months ago
Alexandra -
It's one of the principles of solid hand reading that as the streets go on, the opponent's range should become more defined. If you get to the river and still think villain has four random cards, you're probably not thinking about his ranges hard enough. I think after someone's decided to call even pre-flop, they're no longer on a random range of cards.

Also, I think you'll find that PPT uses '*' for a random card. xxxx represents four cards all of the same suit. If you click on the 'syntax help' tab under the simulator, you'll see that this incredibly useful tool has many ways of helping you to accurately describe your equity against a range of hands.
Sean Fri 12 years, 2 months ago
Ok, I don't read all the posts, so that may be true. I'm only pointing it out because every simulation I've seen you post is against xxxx, and you seem to think it's a random hand. I'm very happy to be wrong.
Nom de Guerre 12 years, 2 months ago
i would 1/2 pot bet flop and turn too.

on river, what kinds of hands do you think villain has that can call three streets? i can't think of too many so i would tend to check. i suppose you could put in a small token river bet if you insist but if you get raised i'd sort of be hating life.

yes quads are always very unlikely, until they become likely. i would usually check river

hubbaHubba
Simon Ash 12 years, 2 months ago
Thought about this hubba and the only hand I could come up with is Akjq, maybe with 2 diamonds...although I think this is a stretch to call 2 bets with..

Checking river must be the only way to go...and hate life whatever happens I think!!!
Dusty Atherton 12 years, 2 months ago
Do we think Axxx or KKxx, QQxx will call here, and to KKxx and QQxx even get to this river? We are really not getting value from anything by betting the river. We can decide to c/c or c/f but betting seems to accomplish nothing here?
Sean Fri 12 years, 2 months ago
As to the actual hand - I suppose it's villain-dependant, but he flatted an utg open deep with two shorties left to act, so he certainly has a hand pre, although it may be speculative. Flatting the flop with, again, a short stack left to act means, again, he's got something - an ace or a ten or maybe a high rundown with an ace or a ten. By the turn I'm guessing his most likely holding is something like AKdQdx with the x possibly being a T. The big thing is this: he hasn't forced you to define your range yet, so you're uncapped, but you almost have to have an A or a T from his point of view, especially if he has blockers to your bluffs (mostly the K and Q of diamonds, of an A himself.)

Now the river: he hasn't made you tell him yet if you have AA, or even a T. So you have to assume that he assumes that he thinks they're in your range. If you bet, he might bet, but never raise, the case A. He'll only raise a T. If you check, I'd need a specific read to think he'll bluff this board, I think even the case A checks behind. In any event, I don't think you're missing any value not betting this river. If he's calling Axxx, he's maybe also betting it. He's raising or betting the T in any case. If you're good, it's the same value x/c as betting. If you're not, it's cheaper to x/c than to b/c, and the same price as b/f.

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