100plo, middle set on A high board vs utg raiser
Posted by jimmyhat1000
Posted by jimmyhat1000 posted in Low Stakes
100plo, middle set on A high board vs utg raiser
HJ: serg.de: $604.01
CO: tigao: $100
BN: jonna10: $102.71
SB: TheAvengedAs: $104.26
BB: jimmyhat1000: $109.67
shunshixia raises to $3, serg.de folds, tigao calls $3, jonna10 folds, TheAvengedAs folds, jimmyhat1000 calls $2
Villian is 30/21/5 over 181 hands. RFI from UTG is 29%.
Two questions, does anybody raise the flop and what to do on the turn?
On the flop against a range of 29%:(AA, 77, AQ, A7, Jc[Q, K, T, A]c, Qc[J, K, T, A]c, Tc[J, Q, K, A]c) which is sets, top two & top & bottom pair and any hand with a flush draw + gutshot we are 60/40 favourite. His c bet stat in single raised pots is 63%, I'd think it would be even less when betting into two players.
If we raise the flop and he 3 bets his range is something like 29%:(AA, KJTcc, 77, AQ) with the wrap + FD combos reduced given we have the Kc. Against that range we ave 38.5%. I can't see any other hands he gets it in with on the flop, and he maybe doesn't even get it in with AQ / 77 which is worse for us.
If we CR we do very well against his calling range. I'd say it consists of very few AA combos, some AQ / 77 and a lot of the draws. It sucks for us if we CR, he 3 bets and we end up folding the 2nd nuts. But can we do this given most villians won't get out of line of this kind of board facing a CR and we can pretty safely fold if he does 3 bet the flop, or are we better calling?
On the turn I'd say our perceived range looks fairly draw heavy given we just called the flop. KTJ and flush draws being the bulk of it and he still fires pretty big. Against 29%:(AA, KK, 77, AK, AQ, JT) we have 40% but rivers are difficult for us to play, especially OOP. Even if the board does pair on the river it's tough for us to extract value against JT. I'm not really sure what to do here.
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