100plo 3bet pot IP HHL fd flop, flushing turn, blank river

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100plo 3bet pot IP HHL fd flop, flushing turn, blank river

Blinds: $0.50/$1.00 (5 Players) BN: $292.03 (Hero)
SB: $842.49
BB: $579.29
UTG: $124.22
CO: $705.85
Preflop ($1.50) Hero is BN with 2 J 2 J
UTG folds, CO raises to $4.50, Hero raises to $16.00, 2 folds, CO calls $11.50
40%-7%
Flop ($34.50) A K 8
CO checks, Hero bets $18.50, CO calls $18.50
call cbet - 35%
raise cbet - 25%
Turn ($71.50) A K 8 Q
CO checks, Hero bets $42.50, CO calls $42.50
call cbet - 24%
call cbet oop - 44%
raise cbet - 25%
donk - 5%
River ($156.50) A K 8 Q 3
CO checks, Hero checks
Final Pot CO wins and shows a straight, Ten to Ace.
CO wins $153.70
Rake is $2.80

7 Comments

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Phil Galfond 10 years, 1 month ago

With no SD value and the 2nd best blocker possible (you could argue that it's the best if our opponent won't slowplay the nut flush), I think this hand has to be one of our bluffs. I would definitely fire the river.

oboltys88 10 years, 1 month ago

Well, if we know from statistics he's never folding a flush the blocker doesn't matter, it's just one less card for him to make a flush. And he has enough flushes on the river to make this bluff -EV. I actually think flop is the street where he folds the most, turn is second and river is where he calls most frequently.

Brian Hamilton 10 years, 1 month ago

That's kind of a weird comment, because none of the information or statistics you provided tell us that villain never folds a flush. We can only go off what you posted.

We've shown strong aggression and put small flushes in a clear bluffcatching situation if we were to bet big on the river. Since you didn't give significant reads, I would expect a random opponent to fold some flushes on this river that only beat bluffs. Villain can also have strong flopped hands such as KK that didn't raise early (because we rep top set). Therefore, I think we can expect villain to have enough folding hands on the river that we have to be bluffing at least some % of the time. Low SD equity hands with the Jh blocker are some of the best hands to choose. It's important to note that we have SD value with some of our Ah blockers so these Jh blocker bluffs are even more mandatory.

arukidinme 10 years, 1 month ago

Seems like an easy river bet with the hand. Considering how often we are going to have hands of value on the river that we are betting this seems like it should be a must bluff (block second nut flush on a board I expect the NFD to have been x/r a high portion of the time), and blocking JJ for the broad way straight. Also have no show down value

Also not firing river after barreling turn seems criminal. Kind of think that if we are firing turn with this hand and giving up river we are probably not bluffing often on the river (only bluffing Ah, and only those worse then AK?)

rapezzo 10 years, 1 month ago

I play plo25 so my question could be stupid.
The 3bet pre is ok? It's a 3bet-fold?

Brian Hamilton 10 years, 1 month ago

I think flatting is fine but being almost 300 bbs deep in position, 3betting double paired hands is good as well. I would not fold to a 4bet since we are so deep and have position.

rickosu 10 years, 1 month ago

mandatory bluff.. why would you put so much money in on flop and turn with a zero equity hand if you werent going to bomb rivers that don't change the board? seems like you need to re-evaluate your gameplans

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