100plo, 3 barrel bluff in 3 bet pot
Posted by jimmyhat1000
Posted by
jimmyhat1000
posted in
Low Stakes
100plo, 3 barrel bluff in 3 bet pot
BN: $110.46
SB: $236.92
BB: $307.37 (Hero)
HJ: $244.50
HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, SB raises to $3, Hero raises to $10, SB calls $7
Villian is 38/31/0 over 32 hands. No showdown stats yet as we haven't played many hands.
I think preflop, flop and turn are pretty standard. My question is about the river, does anybody not like this bluff?
I think its unlikely he has a FH or a straight given his line + my blockers. A backdoor flush is possible but not likely, especially given my 5s and the fact that the Ks is on the board so 2 of his 3 side cards with his Kxxx would have to be spades. That leaves missed heart flush draws which will almost definitely fold, and AK. Do people fold AK on this river? I doubt I'm getting to the river with unimproved AA like this and unless I have a flush I'm probably just checking behind. My value betting range i guess is KK and most flushes. Given preflop I think villian can discount 55, 66 and hands with a 2 in them.
Given my narrow value range how often can bluff in this spot? I don't have any hearts which adds to my case for bluffing. Against a villian who isn't paying attention I can bluff more because they will look at their hand and go "hmm, only one pair, fold" often. But against someone who knows my value range is KK and flushes only how often can i bluff and which hands should I do it with to make him indifferent to calling?
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I probably bet the flop with a lot of my range given it's a decent flop for my as the 3 bettor preflop. I think I get enough folds to make this continuation bet profitable.
On the turn my betting range is any made hand better than two pair. As far as draws go I'm checking back 789 with nothing else. AA or AK with a flush draw I'm not really sure. In game I probably check but thinking about it more they should probably be a bet, not a lot of 34 in his preflop range and lots of Kxxx or worse flush draws, especially if i have hearts. Flush draws with nothing else I think im checking and taking my equity. How do people build their betting range on the turn?
I think flop cbet is pretty standard here i would maybe bet a bit bigger. On the turn i can see some reasoning for checking but i actually think that betting is the better option but i would bet slighty bigger with 2 FD out their. My plan on the river would be to check back if the FD doesnt complete and i dont improve.
With this specific river we basically lost all our showdown value so i def think this is a good spot to turn our hand into a bluff. It would be awful to loose to a hand like Ah6hxx!
In general i would bluff in this spot with a hand were i dont have a lot of showdown value which means if i dont have a K or better in my hand i would choose to bluff here most of the time...
If you're value betting KK and flushes only, that's about 37k combos (~3k of KK hand combos and ~34K of ss). In reality you might not have all ss hands in your pre 3betting range, so if you discount that by 1/2, say, you will have about 20k combos that you can value bet on this river. That means you can get away with ~10k bluff combos.
The most obvious bluffs will be missed hearts, and that's about ~27k combos if you rule out boats and Kxxx. If you want to have a well balanced value/bluff range, a good way would be bluffing with your hearts ~1/3 of the time, and add in some other hands. Hands like rundowns are a good candidate imo, because a) they have little to no SDV on this river, b) you block some of his FH combos, and c) rundowns make up only a few combos so it won't affect our range balance very much. For example, 7654-T987 on this board is only 736 combos altogether, and that's including all rainbow rundowns too, which you might not 3bet pre.
The turn bet is b/f or b/c?
yes you rep pretty thin, but your range is uncapped, the main draw missed and you have near the bottom of your range otr, so I think you have to bluff here. Your blockers are also meaningful, his best bluffcatching hands should be K5/K6 here
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