I do not play high stakes, and sorry if my English isn't perfect :)

The weakest absolute value hand that I will bet/call here would be KJT9/KJT8/KJ89 with a king high flush draw which I will almost always expect to be good because i would expect the nuts flush draw to be shipping the flop out of position since it is also almost never naked on this texture. Considering the nature of the board and the amount of draws I think that we are still ahead of his flop ch/c range, and we are never in horrible shape if shoved on. We might even have fold equity versus some better hands  like KKT8r for example or some low 2 pair, which would be rare, but not impossible. These hands with AJT9/AJT8/AJ98 with nuts suit would be the merged part of the range because they can dominate some of the weaker draws that check/shove this turn. The rest would be J7+ and checking back alot as I think we should on this board texture with our range.

Strongest xb hands would be ones that have good showdown possibility but I do not feel like stacking off with ott which in my opinion will happen most of the time if he decides to continue because I do not expect my opponent to be check/calling this turn as often and mostly to ch/f or ch/r.

That would be overpairs + flushdraw with no other outs, low 2 pairs with flush draw and hands like QJT9r, QJT9s, AKQJr

I do not really like the idea of bet/folding here but maybe the only hands I can come up with to do that are naked aces, but i am not actually sure that we need to have b/f range at this spot so maybe because of that I will be potting with my whole betting range and checking back rest.

Way above my stakes so I'm not qualified to comment on this, but I'll give it a shot if I may.

Looks like a very complicated spot indeed.  I think it would be a good (and intense) exercise to study this with PJ.. but I'll reserve it for tomorrow and just ramble a bit for now. :)

1) His flop + turn range

Since he didn't x/r, donk, or x/f on this flop, his range is mostly capped to one pair on flop, often times with a draw.  He can have some draws without a pair, although that would be rare.  Of this range, hands that improve a lot on this turn are (in no particular order) turned two pairs (J6, 76, 63), straight (54), improved draws (98, any clubs), etc.  Other hands retain their value, of which the strongest would be naked KK/QQ and AJ.  

Hands that improved on turn are likely not folding and likely x/jamming, barring some weaker two pairs.  But these two pairs often have a draw to go with, so we can't be too optimistic.  On the other hand, hands that didn't improve on turn are probably folding if we pot here.

2) What we want to do with our range against his

We don't really want to slowplay much on this board.  That said, our rough plan should be as following:

1) Bet/call with hands with our top range: at least TP with combo draws (clubs or diamonds + gutter or better)

2) Check back and give up with our bottom range: not a lot, because lots of "total air" on turn could have been checked back on flop to pick up some backdoor equity or to give up (for example, we would often check back hands like AKT5dd, I guess)

3) Bet/fold with our middle range that cannot improve much on most rivers: dry AA/KK without much of a draw, and sometimes AJ/KJ without much draw/overcards

4) Check back with our middle range that can improve on certain rivers: TP + weak draw, naked TP + 3 overcards to 7, etc.

Thing is, if our flop betting/checking ranges are well balanced, we shouldn't have too many give ups on this turn.  If we did, that means our flop betting range is probably too weak.  In other words, we don't really have naked clubs/diamonds/7+clubs/etc because we can just start checking back those on the flop.

That said, I think our only b/f hands are dry overpairs and stuff like AJT5, as these are the hands that benefit the most by folding out his QQ+ and weaker two pairs, and we probably won't have much of a checking back range to give up on the river.  We can, of course, still check back hands with some improvement potential + SDV, like QJT8 with no FD, because these are the hands that were strong enough to bet/call on flop but not anymore on this turn. 

3) How I think we should proceed further

Well, I didn't really talk about how Phil's range would be perceived by Jeans89.  That said, I think a good way to further delve into this problem would be using some GTO-related software (Gambit comes to my mind).  We can create 3 turn ranges for Phil - bet/call, bet/fold, and checking back - and 2 (or 3) turn ranges for Jeans89 - x/jam, x/fold and (rarely) x/call.  River matters only when Phil checks back, in which case Jeans would again have a decision to make - bet/call, bet/fold (meh), x/jam, x/call, x/fold.  Against this, Phil has the following decisions: call/jam/fold vs a bet, bet/call, bet/fold (meh) against a check.

These are already a lot of decisions, and we haven't even considered whether Jeans89 would have a donking range on this turn or not.  But that's fine, because even if there were, we can just rule it out from our tree because he checked on turn.  Anyway, I think this spot can be formulated into a (pseudo-) GTO problem with some amount of effort.  If Phil and other posters would approve of it, I am willing to work on this for the next couple of days in my spare time.  I can't guarantee this will lead to anything useful or accurate, but I can try. 

Sorry for the rambling, and I hope I made some sense at least.  Again, I don't play at these limits so please take my words with a grain of salt. :)

- midori

Do you know your own range in this spot? Do you have stats/reads on Jeans that you use to base your preflop and flop ranges on? For instance I would never even consider openfolding AKQQr UTG whereas you snapfolded it, clearly this has strong implications on how to play your ranges when facing future action.

Without knowing anything about your ranges and the dynamics of this spot it becomes very difficult to comment. 

Phil,

what range do you bet the flop with which does not want to fire the turn? I mean as you said your 3betting range is strong in this spot for the most part, besides Aces, right?

Your sizing on that drawheavy flop is on the smaller side, do you really expect Jeans to fold anything for such a price and so much money behind to play for? What is your reasoning for betting so small? Is that standard with such deep stacks or do you choose different betsizes with different parts of your range?

I guess you want to check all of your draws, which are not good enough to get it in and see a river and bet call obvious value hands as well as strong draws. I don't even know what type of hands you want to bet-fold here. By that I mean there is just no fold equity in general on such a dynamic turn card with so much money left to play for, unless you want to be potting the turn? As Jeans pre and flop calling range shouldn't be too wide and splashy?

I gave him a range of 35%-$4B7+((PR>, FD, GD+PR)-(SET, NFD, WR)) "Omaha Ranger Syntax".

6c is def. one of the better cards for his range. Now we need to analyze our 8% range, say 10% 3bet range, since it is better constructed in OR. Syntax: $3B10+(FD, OP, TP>, GD+PR)

Villain should have around 10% of straights OTT compared to our 4% so we are not in a huge disadvantage least to say.

I think we should balance our nut range(mostly pairs+FD>) with dryFD's and some gutshots. Check back dry 2pair combos/dry aces and mi it up with 5%-10% nut range for balance.

i ahve a question for phil galfond. when your seriously discussing strategy why don't you talk fast in hebrew?

Would be cool if someone would take on this in a video using PJ or whatever.

Phil,

I have found this thread really interesting and am really happy with your choice to hide the actual hand you had and not initially give your thoughts.

In your original post you said that you had a page of thoughts written down which you planned to post after some people had given their thoughts. Any chance of you sharing that with us now?

Darley

Pot the turn he will perceive that he has 0 fold equity which will rule out him having anything but draws which will give you complete visibility and him with false visibility this will allow u to bluff almost every river only with the part of ur range with little to 0 equity would i make this play. ck back all ur hands that don't have enough equity to bet call. Bet call all ur top 2flush draws top and mid set and and bottom and mid bottom set with flush draws also bet call them off. It's late tbh i can't sleep but i think there is something to this stack sizing and potting with air when ur opponent perceives 0 fold equity on this board.

Bet all sets, all turned straight, all nut flushdraws and JT98 type of hands.

I wrote out a long rambling post but I accidentally closed the tab so I will try to keep it short this time. Weakest bet call hand equity wise is probably like top pair and a flush draw so aa** is also in there too. I like bet folding straight draws with no flushdraw.Also overcards with a naked kd,kc,ad,ac which I can use some to fire the the third barrel with. Check back draws I would hate to bet fold like naked nut flush draws and a non nut flush + gut shot type hand. Also checking back some of my aa with the ad or ac for bluff catching / bluff raising rivers he leads into us. This seems about right for the threshold hands. Lastly, Anybody who is reading this pls respond I like to talk about things.

Phil we are waiting...!