100/200 HKD Live Macau shove this boat on river for value?
Posted by pacmang
Posted by
pacmang
posted in
High Stakes
100/200 HKD Live Macau shove this boat on river for value?
HJ opens 600 and I 3bet to 2100 with Td9d97. He calls (as he has for the past 3-4 times)
Flop KK9r (4300).
HJ checks, I bet 2500, he CR to 6500 (also CR me on another paired board earlier which I folded). I 3bet to 12500 and he calls.
Turn KK9 T (29300)
HJ checks, I bet 20k, he quickly calls.
River KK9T 5 (69300)
HJ checks, I have 36k behind and am deciding between checking back and shoving
There are several factors that I'm considering in this situation
1. How strong is this hand in my distribution? -- fairly strong
2. Am I likely to get called by worse? -- Really hard to answer but he def still have bluff catchers in his range which could crying call a 1/2 pot bet
3. Will I value own myself too much? -- Possibly, but blocker wise I block a ton of combos to his nutty hands, K9 and KT, whereas I block none of his bluff catchers (AQK, KQJ)
4. I know checking is just fine but I feel like shoving nets a higher EV (dont' have proof though)
I personally feel like the river is super close and could go either way but I want to be able to get a better grasp of this question within the context of my own range since I have very little information on villain. Also would like to discuss whether you guys would 3bet this hand on flop or choose to flat instead?
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