sim AA vs QhQd3d3s on 2c6c7cQsJs (or something similar). Then the only way AA** wins is by having flopped a flush - 22.88%.

that seems correct? im sure there must be a better way to ask. Is it standard to 4bet any AA** 200bb deep? 

If you sim AA:xxyy (aces and double suited) vs QhQd3d3s on 2c6c7cQsJs, v's flush count jumps to 47.45%, 27.17% for xAxA (at least one A high suit).

disclaimer, i am very green, total novice (first post in plo forum), but i can give some numbers, sorry if this is all too simplistic.

vs AA:cc, 34.13% equity on flop. If you have clairvoyance enough to know that he will half pot twice then you're pot odds are (30+72.12)/(66.5+60+144.24) = 37%, which seems cool.

vs AA:cc, ([Tc+][Tc+][Ty+][Ty+]), 33.6% on flop. Him betting or checking JT doesn't change your equity.

vs AA:*c*c you have 23.67% equity on turn, and pot odds of 72.12/(66.5+60+144.24) = 26%, so if he is ever bluffing or you make extra when you hit river you should call right? and raising is out of the question because he either has you crushed or is drawing very thin? do we assume he checks JT behind on flop/turn?

AAxx hand wil be suited in matching color to the flop 18 percent ( close to 19 round it up is 20ish percent he's got AA suited in clubs ) of the time of all AA hands

√ 6961 AA** combo possible

√ AxA*x* 5256  suited combos possible / divide by 4 - 1314 are clubs

1314/6961 = 0.1887 probability he has suited clubs if u assume he has AA ** in that 4 bet always

DISCLAIMER -my math is lol often way off, but i think i got this 1 right

To add, even tho possibility he has clubs 20 percent of the time, when he takes this line its usually either a suit or a blocker, so i think u can safely disregard possibility of 80 percent that he had AA** that missed total

So only question is does he have a suit or a blocker

Math calculation won't help you there that much ( i might be wrong ) but player read

If he is a reg he should be value betting nut flush twice and blocker once making u indifferent between calling and folding

( ps~ im not sure i got this 1 well as well )

So does he have a blocker or not, if he is good,is not question on what answer wil help you in playing this hand

So~ I'm just thinking as I'm writing~ if he is betting 2-1 suit-blocker ratio ~ calling or folding is indifferent for ya cause u wil hit 33 percent ur out ( if u decide on flop u wil go al the way to rvr ) ~ going half way and folding on turn kinda feels wrong!~ but is too late and this is already too much math for me~

i hate math '( atm its so damn important and I'm so far away of where i need to be ~

Board = 9c8c7c, Dead = 9d9h3h3s

On this flop there are 5085 combos of AA, 1107 hands of AA:cc (any flopped flush) and 1585 hands of AcA!cc (just the nut blocker).  That is, he will have flopped the flush 21.7% of the time and the nut blocker 31.2% of the time.  

FYI, he will have flopped the nut flush (AcA:cc) 19% of the time, and non-nut flush the other ~2.7% of time.  Hence, if he is bluffing with the lone nut blocker all the time, he's bluffing about ~60% of the time and we have an easy get it in.

Now, this is slightly different from the original question you asked, "how often is AA gonna flop a flush / blocker on a monotone board?" because we had taken our actual hand into consideration.  This is somewhat important consideration, esp. due to blocker effects.  

For example, on 9c8c7c board (or any monotone board, it doesn't matter) with no dead card, there are 6121 combos of AA, of which 1999 combos are nut blocker and 1215 combos are flush (1107 being nut flush).  This is 32.6% of nut blocker and 19.8% of flush (18.1% nut flush).

If we have Kc for example, though, there are now 5853 combos of AA and 1056 flush combos (972 nut flushes).  The blocker is still 1999 combos though, so we end up having 18% of flush (16.6% nut flush) and 34.2% of nut blocker.

This is about 1.5-2% difference, but in PLO small edges like this add up pretty quickly.

Seems like a clear turn call.

We need to have some board coverage on board pairing rivers(which are good for us since villain's range is lacking FH combos).  This seems like one of the best ones to call with.  We can fold this combo on brick rivers(bad removal/low enough in our range), value jam board pairs, and turn some of our weakest bluff catchers onto a bluff to balance that range (probably JT or weakest flushes).  

Just noticed river stacks will be a little weird.  Still call turn>>>>jam turn.  When we jam he folds his bluffs and calls w/ better so we just let him off the hook.  The play is to call and if he jams rivers we can try to get a timing tell or make some exploitive read, other wise just call w/ enough of our range to where villain is indifferent to bluff.  

I think just calling down all 3 streets is  fine.  I think the nut blocker bets the turn in a 4 bet pot a ton.   I mean, when you get to the turn on that board in a 4 bet pot, how often are you check folding ? I feel like nut blocker against your flop calling range is standard profitable bet for villain.  And by the river people still decide to shove it a lot.  I feel like more then any other spot, this deep in a 4 bet pot is where people decide to use the blocker a ton.  I think calling down is fine against most regs with no real history ?