I think at worst you are around 33% and at best 50%. It will be the latter if they can lead with stuff like pair+wrap and the former if it's only stuff like two pair+ and strong combo draws. I have seen players lead with narrow ranges in that spot and other players lead quite a bit wider trying to apply pressure, but overall I think it can be argued that you actually have the equity to call and evaluate the turn being IP. If you get it in OTF I think you are often crushed or flipping at best, so I don't really love shoving. UTG's range should connect quite well with that texture.

Calling makes sense to me.

In PPT, I'm having a hard time assigning villain a range that you don't have the right price against (unless they're never semibluffing here, which may be true), and you're in position with plenty of workable turn cards.