100 PLO 3 way 3 bet flop w/ AA
Posted by MB
Posted by
MB
posted in
Low Stakes
100 PLO 3 way 3 bet flop w/ AA
UTG: $117.88
HJ: $78.40
CO: $147.13
BN: $229.31 (Hero)
SB: $104.45
BB: $91
HJ: $78.40
CO: $147.13
BN: $229.31 (Hero)
SB: $104.45
BB: $91
Preflop
($1.50)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
A
7
T
A
UTG raises to $3, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $10.50, SB calls $10, BB folds, UTG calls $7.50
UTG raises to $3, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $10.50, SB calls $10, BB folds, UTG calls $7.50
Flop
($32.50)
8
Q
7
(3 Players)
SB checks,
UTG checks
Loading 4 Comments...
1) You're around 30% vs a c/r range of sets, two pair and wraps. A bet would then be b/f in a spot where you don't expect to be check-raised light (pot is multiway and "protected").
2) You're doing ok when called, but flipping a lot and not really crushing anything that can reasonably continue (for example, you're 53% vs random KQJT = TP + gutshot).
3) You have some fold equity, but you're up against two players, one loose and the other aggressive. In a vacuum, that's not a good situation for betting light.
4) You'll pick up good equity/playability on lots of turns: Any A, 7, non-pairing diamonds or spades will improve you significantly. That's 21 out of 45 turn cards. In addition you have nutty BD straight draws with any K or J. You also have some "dirty" outs to two pair, a non-nutty straight draw, or a flush draw on paired board
What this means:
Since you can't bet-call (without assuming a fair bit of light check-raises) and you're hoping they fold, a flop bet (seen in isolation) would mostly work as a bluff/protection bet. You're mainly hoping they fold marginal hands that should continue if they knew what you have. But life won't be horrible if they call either, since you can barrel lots of turns with decent equity against anything that called flop.
You're up against two players (one of them aggressive, the other loose) and must expect to get played with a fair amount. You don't want to get check-raised, but many turns will improve your equity/playability significantly. Since you've been given the opportunity to take a free card that will often improve you, checking to preserve equity and play turns must be ok.
A bet will get some folds and some calls by worse hands. Betting with decent-but-not-great equity and good playability on future streets must be ok if you rarely get check-raised by a range that crushes you. On this pretty dry board we don't expect them to have hit hard a lot.
Without doing detailed math (which we can of course do to estimate how often they fold, call or c/r) it seems somewhat close, and I don't think you can make a mistake either way, given all the good turns you have (i.e. both betting and checking seem obviously profitable with a good follow-up plan against your opponents' various responses). Opponent tendencies matter, especially when you have to react to a c/r.
If you know they fold a lot in 3B pots and/or rarely check-raise (which weakens their checking ranges and makes it easy to respond once the c/r comes), that's more reason to bet-fold. If they peel a lot and stack off light, that's more reason to bet-call. If they don't fold too much and you're unsure about how to respond to a c/r, that's more reason to check and play turns.
This seems like a great plan, Thanks for the response.
Multiway pots are always tricky to calculate, but analysis will probably show that their combined ranges aren't strong enough on this board to give you any real trouble. A check-raise, undesirable as it is, won't happen often when you're betting against weak ranges.
Furthermore, getting it in with not quite good enough pot odds (for example if you are ~30% vs a c/r range and need 35% to stack off) is not a problem when a c/r doesn't happen often. Small mistakes that occur infrequently won't hurt your EV much.
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