100 PL I have everything.
Posted by TJ Serdar
Posted by
TJ Serdar
posted in
Low Stakes
100 PL I have everything.
100 PL 6h 100bb eff.
3 folds fish limps BTN, I 4.00 SB KK87, good reg call BB, fish call BTN
Flop K55r(12)
I check, Reg 8, BTN fold I Ca
Tu Ko(28)
Ch ch
River 3o(28)
I?
Flop seems like a clear check as I have the deck crushed and they'll bet wider than they'll call a bet. I can get 2 solid streets on tu+riv as well as rep more bluffs on say the 6h, as well as let my opponents catch up a bit. Also protect my QQ-99
Turn I think I should be leading since it's a better card for my range than villain's and when I check he'll likely give up w/ his bluffs and check back most 5x so betting gains from 5x. The downside is that I just don't have many(any?) bluffs unless I start turning stuff like 99-TT into a bluff.
On river, it's a spot where I'll have some QQ-99's, but a large chunk of my range is Kx. I also have no air at all, so I'm thinking sizing like 12 w/ range is best. I can probably get away with turning some of the worst bluff catchers I called flop with into a bluff now even with that sizing b/c I've just got sooo much Kx.
I'm not a huge fan of a river x/r with this combo since villain isn't likely to bluff, nor will he value bet non FH 5xxx. I make more by betting smallish.
Thoughts?
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Nothing you can do, betting doesn't make any sense. No one is ever bluffing river with QQ or AA. Check induce to protect AA c/c on flop? He really can't call worse unless he's got a 5 and puts you exactly on AA, but really he could be balanced and check back some kings on turn so turning a hand into a bluff that has showdown value seems bad.
shouldn't we just bet bet bet to stack the fish when he has a 5? If he has a 5, bets flop, checks behind on the turn (which fish are wont to do with trips weak kicker) and we only end up getting two streets .... id kill myself. Any reason to think the reg or fish will go insane if you check?
I'd just bet the turn, obv the turn card isn't ideal but he might call you down with qqxx or aaxx, both of which won't bet.
If he has a 5, you want to get as much value as possible.
I think a nice starting point would be to decide if I want to have two ranges here, or just c-bet range and go from there. Since I don't have many QQ-99 that would prefer checking/showing down, I don't think I need to develop an entire new range in order to protect those few combos, so betting range seems better. Given that, I think I should just bet flop small and hope to either get 3 streets vs 5x or get floated.
My thinking at the time on the flop was a) I have the deck crushed and if I check they'll bet wider than they'll call(specifically the reg), b) I want to protect my QQ-99's which x/ca flop, and c) since both opp have air so frequently, I thought checking to let them either make an underfull or pick up backdoor draw would be advantageous. So my check might be good in a vacuum, but for my range and overall game plan, betting is probably best.
Agree I should be leading turn. I never have air, but bluffs give up on that turn and 5x never bets but will often call a bet.
I mostly agree with you, but I'm not sure if the reg will bet out often from BB with BTN behind when you check. He has to worry about you x/c'ing with Kx and sometimes AA. However, I still think checking might be profitable because we don't want them to fold and we probably have 1-2 streets of max value anyway, which can become easier if we check here and give them some free cards (especially draws).
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