100 6max, top2 getting c/r
Posted by patrick
Posted by
patrick
posted in
Low Stakes
100 6max, top2 getting c/r
BB: $57.51
CO: $108.76 (Hero)
BN: $78
SB: $103.25
CO: $108.76 (Hero)
BN: $78
SB: $103.25
Villain is reggy and reasonable
Preflop
($1.50)
(4 Players)
Hero was dealt
T
J
Q
A
Hero raises to $3, BN folds, SB calls $2.50, BB calls $2
Hero raises to $3, BN folds, SB calls $2.50, BB calls $2
Flop
($9.00)
Q
J
5
(3 Players)
SB checks,
BB checks,
Hero bets $6,
SB raises to $26.60,
BB folds
Had some heated discussions about this.
My plan was to call the raise and ship every turn which is not a spade, A, T, 9 and possibly 8 (not sure about 8s), so basically doing an equity shift.
Some friends said they'd jam the flop but I think this is a -EV play against a reasonable player in a singleraised pot.
We have 42% against AKT:ss, KT:ss, KT9:ss, QQ, JJ, 55, QJ. In that case we assume Villain will c/r/broke with bare QJ which is optimistic imo, if we remove QJ from the range we have 35%. So we never get it in with 45% even and I think that's a bad play then.
On a blank turn we have 54% against the range without QJ.
My plan was to call the raise and ship every turn which is not a spade, A, T, 9 and possibly 8 (not sure about 8s), so basically doing an equity shift.
Some friends said they'd jam the flop but I think this is a -EV play against a reasonable player in a singleraised pot.
We have 42% against AKT:ss, KT:ss, KT9:ss, QQ, JJ, 55, QJ. In that case we assume Villain will c/r/broke with bare QJ which is optimistic imo, if we remove QJ from the range we have 35%. So we never get it in with 45% even and I think that's a bad play then.
On a blank turn we have 54% against the range without QJ.
Loading 3 Comments...
I don't think that shoving the flop would be profitable. Actually, it might require some optimistic assumptions on our part to make it break-even.
We have position, so we might as well use it. Sometimes the turn is a spade, and villain slows down with QQ, and we save money against the nutted part of his range. Sometimes the turn is a blank, and we get it in with adequate equity against his range. And when the turn is not a blank and he keeps putting money in, our equity against his range is so low that we have an easy fold.
Whether he has a made hand or a combo-draw, we do well by seeing a turn. There is no hand in his range that we are crushing, so we're not worried about losing action. With 55 for example, we would have that issue to consider, but with QJ - I don't see how shoving does us any good.
you plan in OP is good. call flop and play poker on the turn. This is also beneficial to your range as you'll have lots of draws with clean outs that don't want to jam the flop. In general a large portion of that range will be forced to fold on blanks, so this hand gives you something that can call blanks. You're protecting your range.
we can def fold this hand vs the range you described. when you wrote "vs xxx hands we have 42% eq" did you give him 100% pre?
vs ($fi30!$3b6o):(KT:ss,QQ,JJ,55,QJ) we have 37% on the flop (goes up to 41% if we only change $fi30 to $fi50). there are only 8 cards in the deck (K/Q/J) where we will be ahead vs his range, and that includes the Ks which will be hard to play (we may fold if he bets, or give him a free card with his sets if he checks). sure we only need 35% to gii prof ott if i didnt mess up the math, which means that we can continue on 20-27 turns depending on how picky u are %age-wise (on 6-9 turns we will have 34%).
i doubt id fold in-game vs a reg if he was x-r a decent amount and his range could be wider but some ppl dont even x-r top2/55 without backup. just something to keep in mind, i agree that gii on the flop is bad vs the avg reg at these stakes but peel-stackoff is close to BE and may be -EV vs a lot of players too.
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