100 6m, 200bb ip, top 2 vs flop cr and turn pot

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100 6m, 200bb ip, top 2 vs flop cr and turn pot

None: ndahlhoff: $206.35
None: maganyosalaz: $99.20
None: profitingu: $60
None: YourNemesiss: $201.33
None: Fiskaarnn: $218.65
None: Noidea90: $122
Preflop ($2.00) (6 Players)
YourNemesiss calls $1, Fiskaarnn folds, Noidea90 folds, ndahlhoff raises to $5, maganyosalaz folds, profitingu folds, YourNemesiss calls $4
Flop ($12.00) Q 2 9 (2 Players)
YourNemesiss checks, ndahlhoff bets $9, YourNemesiss raises to $24, ndahlhoff calls $15
Turn ($60.00) 5 (2 Players)
YourNemesiss bets $60
I have $170 ott.

Vil is 43/25, 28% agg, 11% open limp utg and 54% vpip. 41% f2cb. 18% flop cr. Agg by street (33 otf, 26 ott, 19 otr)

Two notes that aren't extremely relevant:
cold 4b 4567r, 55 bb stack
bvb call 9762 on J37r 5ss flop and turn, bluff pot otr Qsss

I was considering jam, or call and soul read/consider bluffing rivers. Maybe fold is an option as well? His range seems to be set heavy and lacking in big draws considering his line and his pf play from utg. (seems more likely his pp's will be in his small limp range, and that he'll just raise anything that can hit big draws otf, pf)

7 Comments

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Jason Ring 12 years, 2 months ago
Don't really think that folding is an option. His small x/r on flop is strange and not sure why you would call flop raise then fold on this turn.

As for turn, I think jamming is better than calling. I think his range is more heavily weighted to pair+draw type hands then sets.
eldodo42 12 years, 2 months ago
I think that usually there are many ways to play a poker hand. This hand is not one of these cases. Flop is always a call, and turn is always a jam, and I believe this is the only correct way to play the hand vs described villain. Here's why:

Some PPTing will show that on the flop after villain raises we have the best made hand like 80% of the time, maybe more. This is simply because of our blockers, which decrease the chance that villain has a set to ridiculously small proportions, while all of villain's semibluffs are still in his range. The knowledge of our blockers make almost any reasonable-aggressive villain very unbalanced here. However, our equity vs villain's range is not that great, since he has a bunch of combo draws and draw+pair which we flip against or are even dogs against, so we're a little ahead or way behind. So we flat and wait for a safe turn (not that there are many of those).

Luckily enough, a safe turn indeed comes, and now all of a sudden we're doing really well vs villain's range (we even picked up a gutshot, but the analysis doesn't change if we hadn't). Villain has to keep firing with his draws most of the time in order to be able to win the hand on the river if he misses. So he bets with the vast majority of his range. Now we get to jam. We don't mind much if villain folds or calls: either he puts money when he's significantly behind, or he folds his considerable equity. In either case, folding is out of the question, and flatting is out of the question since we let villain's realize his equity.
Clownfish 12 years, 2 months ago
I agree with the above opinions. Against such a player with that high flop c/r frequencies I don't see any other play than shoving on any save turn card. One thing that has not been mentioned is that the 5 OOT gives you some more equity in the case that he shows up with a set (btw I think he has 22 also in his range) or FD + pair w/o JT kind of hand. It's not going to be that often obv. I will shove the turn but not expect to be very far ahead. I think vs good players this will be 0 or -ev play btw.

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