10-PLO Calling 3bet IP, low SPR OTF

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10-PLO Calling 3bet IP, low SPR OTF

BN: $10
SB: $4.81
BB: $6.97
UTG: $9.26
HJ: $10.68
CO: $11.06 (Hero)
Preflop ($0.15) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt J 7 T A
UTG calls $0.10, HJ folds, Hero raises to $0.45, BN folds, SB folds, BB raises to $1.50, UTG folds, Hero calls $1.05
BB is practically unknown (only 39 hands) but seemed very passive until now.
Stack-size is also usually indicative that he's not a regular.

I thought there was a good chance he had AAxx.
The fact that I have an A in my hand made me feel this was a close decision. I'd rather have a K or Q when he has AA.
With the two suits, broadway potential and position, I decided to call.
Is this ok?
Flop ($3.25) 5 J 9 (2 Players)
BB bets $3.01, Hero raises to $9.56, and is all in, BB calls $2.46, and is all in
On the Flop, with this SPR I think this is standard.
Then again, another broadway card in my hand (instead of the A) would increase my equity when opponent has AA, but hey, I think I have to go with it.

Thanks in advance.

18 Comments

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jonna102 11 years, 9 months ago

You're right to think that A high hands are often folds to a AA heavy 3-bet range.  With this hand though, I think you just about have enough to call in position, so I think the call is good.  Would be interesting to see some solid numbers on that.  You do run into trouble on some flops, let's say A73r or KT2r, but often you're going to know when you can get it in or not.

Flop is totally standard, you're flipping against AAxx so just get it in.

Aleksandra ZenFish 11 years, 9 months ago

The SPR ratio you mention in this hand is lower because person in question is not fully stacked

When person with suspected AA 3 bets you often have odds to call because of implied odds, its easy to call and if you dont hit well its an easy fold, its not that there is a 4 bet and SPR goes so low u dont need high equity to call off

In this case your ev looks like this against AA

0.43 x 14 -0.57x14 =7.31-7.98 = -0.67 which is slightly better then folding

but if person was properly stacked 

your ev looks like this :

0.43 x 20 -0.57x20 = 8.6-11,4=-2.8 which is worst loss tehn just folding 1,5 you invested

This is a very marginal spot, and reason why you are in it , is because you called suspected AA with broadway hand that doesnt stand as good odds to hit very well overoll against aces, at least not sufficient enough for this to be profitable call preflop, and is very marginal post flop and against fully stacked person its slightly losing

However, implied odds against opponent holding aces are always good,  so you may venture in a call, bbut after flop call is marginal at best in 3 betted pot and to add, 

of all hands to call aces for implied odds broadway type hands  stand worst odds to hit anything of significance because clashing values of highcards where aces are ahead and same time they re blocking many str8s broadways do make


Joao Leao 11 years, 9 months ago

I don't think that's the proper way to calculate PF equity. What we need to know is the percentage of flops that will be favorable to us, and that's a bit more complicated. Bugs's "PLO from scratch" shows you how to do this.

Of course I know this spot is marginal, that's why I posted it. The question is how marginal. I see some surprising opinions in this forum and I just wanted to know what would you do. Sometimes we know what we should do but, as Hwang wrote in one of his books, "we all have fishy thoughts". :)

Aleksandra ZenFish 11 years, 9 months ago

Well my ev calculation might not be of your like, i kinda shortehend some formulas and didnt say what is what, but thats it..no matter how u do it..marginal at best which im sure you do know if you read plo from scratch, and you got thorough calculations for exact spot so you might go reread it if you got confused meanwhile since

Duttywinee 11 years, 9 months ago

Rather than answer your question i think it would be wise to solve a similar way as i :- use an online calculator, propokertools or cardplayers omaha calc to run equities with your current hand and various combos against a 4bet likely range. 
1) Take your pot odds from this situation! to calculate necessary preflop equities to make the call!
 [ you will find low run downs perform extremely well in 4 bet pots and make post flop decisions extremely easily, and  middle-higher run downs + pairs are worth seeing some flops with depending on reads. You will also find paired hands perform worse than those that are unpaired since they have less outs to hit two pair vs an AAxx hand; And generally, relying on a paired hands flush draws when calculating equities is an incorrect assumption, since AAxx will dominate flush draws sometimes, therefore meaning on low boards with flush draws, getting it all in something like QcQdJcTd on a 5c4c2s thinking you have an OP + FD would be ignorant to the fact that 4 bet ranges are AAxx, A(xxx>T), AKKXDs (depending on position) are most likely going to dominating flush draws as well as overpairs. 
2) Run equities vs AAxx unsuited, suited and double suited. 
run equities vs super premiums, AKQJ DS and the likes. Possibly as worse AKJT single suited. AKKx single suited. Wider ranges for shorter stacks in general. 
3) Compare pot odds to equities!
4) learn and adapt 

jonna102 11 years, 9 months ago

Ok, I did run the numbers on this.

First of all, we're investing an extra $1.05 preflop so this is what we need to recover postflop to make it break even.  We also know we need ~38.5% equity on the flop to continue.  For simplicity, we'll assume a) that villain gets it in on any flop, and b) that we play perfectly.  Later we may challenge these assumptions and see what happens.  I'm making all calculations from the flop, so we'll delay adjusting for preflop.

So we need to know on how many flops we have at least 38.5% equity.  This comes out as ~44.5%, meaning we'll be folding 55.5% of the time.  So 55.5% of the time our postflop EV is 0.

Next we need to know: The times we do call, how often do we win?  In other words, what is our average equity when we get it in?  I'll shortcut the calculation of this number, and just say that it ends up being ~56%.    So 44.5% of the time we have 56% equity.

When we win, we will end up with what's already in the pot ($3.25) plus both our effective stacks (2 x $5.47) or $14.19.  EV when winning then becomes 44.5% x 56% x ($14.19 - $5.47) = $2.17.

When we lose, we lose the remaining $5.47 of effective stacks, and this happens 44.5% x (100% - 56%) of the time = 19.6%.  EV when losing then becomes 19.6% x -$5.47 = -$1.07.

Total EV of the postflop play: $2.17 - $1.07 = $1.10.  So postflop we're winning 11 bb on average.

Now we need to remember that we invested $1.05 to win this $1.10 making it just about a break even play.  When we adjust for rake we lose around $0.10 on average, so the total EV for this play would be -$0.05.

Remember though, that this is still better than losing the $0.45 that we lose if we fold to the 3-bet, so calling is actually better by roughly 4 bb's.  

Now it's time to challenge our assumptions.  Let's say villain folds the flop some of the time.  We will quickly see that this only improves our situation, so that's fine.  Next let's say we don't play perfectly, we either fold too much or we get it in too light.  We'll find that we need to get it right to within +/- 5% or so.  If we misjudge our flop equity by more than that, then we risk making mistakes that turn the win into a loss.

So it's very close.  I certainly wouldn't fault an inexperienced player for folding, since it's easy to make equity mistakes that are too large on the flop.  It's also very close depending on the actual hand.  Remove a suit and it probably becomes a fold.  Make the 7 a 6 and it might also become a fold.  This is how close it is.  So taking a default policy of folding all A high hands to an AAxx heavy 3-bet range is certainly solid beginner advice.  

We haven't really challenged the assumption that villain has AAxx here, but I think this is long enough already so let's save that for another day  ;-)

cAp217 11 years, 9 months ago

Once the 1st raise is in the pot, do we still have to account for it as a loss?  I know you are comparing open folding vs open/calling and the outcome and bb differences.  But once that $0.45 is in the pot, shouldn't we write it off and not call just to defend the open?

jonna102 11 years, 9 months ago

Yeah, I think that's how it's done although maybe it wasn't clear.  By calling we invest an extra $1.05 preflop, and we expect to win it back postflop.

Aleksandra ZenFish 11 years, 9 months ago

Well, :) is marginal, and to top it villain isnot fully stacked

Should be pointed out that ev calculation of slightly marginal becomes an error and minus if opponent was stacked normally

Tom Coldwell 11 years, 9 months ago

Assuming this 3-bet is AA, your call is totally fine and you'll show a profit on it (my sims, and I ran a few just in case, weren't as borderline as the one Jonna did). Equally, if this is wider than AA, we'll also be fine. This hand just flops so well that we can play to the 3-bet profitably.

Joao Leao 11 years, 9 months ago

Thanks for all the replies, I appreciate the thorough analysis.

Results:

Villain shows unsuited but very connected AA -- AcAdKsJs -- and we get it in with 41% equity.

cAp217 11 years, 9 months ago

Well at some point if we get into 3 and 4 bet pots, we will always find enough equity to call rather than fold preflop right?  I have always wondered this... 

jonna102 11 years, 9 months ago

I think a lot of people make the mistake of just looking at the hot+cold equity.  They realize that all hands have ~33% against AA so they think it's a call.  But it doesn't quite work like that.  We actually need to hit flops quite often for it to work out.  Folding out 25-30% equity on flops gets expensive real fast.

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