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1-1 Live Sticky spot OOP with Draw.

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

1-1 Live Sticky spot OOP with Draw.

Hero sb AcAs6cQs (200 stack)

Couple off limpers, STEAMED-station-LAG pots on BTN to 7
Hero calls and so does rest off table about 5-6 way dont remember.

Flop Tc8c9s Hero x, random donk to 5, 3 callers fish raises to 40.
Hero calls, rest folds and last player also calls.(both fish and him covers hero)
Turn 3s Hero x, DONK pott fish folds hero?

I know I should probably 3-bet pre here every time but I am experementing with a new call strat so not really interested about preflop. It was also several shortys at the table who liked to limp-raise and since the fish WOULD never fold to a 3-bet Hero could 4-bet.

My question is whats best flop and turn line?

Call flop seems best with multiwaydraw and alot off turns makes my hand much easier to play.
On the turn the donk was strange, would he flat on the flop with QJ**, to me it seems he picked up some extra draw like QKsTxs?

9 Comments

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nassander 9 years, 10 months ago

Can you add in the pot sizes on each street so we can see the odds etc?

Also I don't understand this? I can't work out who is still in the hand on the turn and who is doing the betting, maybe re-write it.
"Turn 3s Hero x, DONK pott fish folds hero?"

In general though against players that are betting like crazy and never folding I think check calling is a pretty good strategy with the nut draws. Obv the board isn't the best but we keep in worse FDs too which is great.

erdian 9 years, 10 months ago

Ok, sorry will be more clear next time. On the flop the total pot became about 150. After a small donkbet to 5 then couple off callers and fish raise LAST to 40. Hero called and so did the last player next to the fish.

Turn: 3s The player who JUST CALLED last time decided to donk pot 150. I have no read on this player as he just sat down. Fish folded so the pot is around 300 and hero has about 140-150 left. What should hero do here?
I have Ac6cQsAs on Ts8c9s3c

nassander 9 years, 10 months ago

You are getting 2:1 so we need at least 33.3% equity to break even. Based on my range analysis below we have 39.29% equity so a call is +EV.

This is my first attempt using more advanced syntax in the equity calculator and I think I got it right. I assigned the villain a pretty tight range of all flopped sets and straights. He could be a bit wider but I think this is a fair guess. I assume he is just wanting to draw to no flush then gii ott.
Equity

spassewr 9 years, 10 months ago

if theres $100 in the pot, you check, and your opponent pots it for 100$ you are now getting 2-1 to call. if the hand ended right there, youd need 33% eq to call (not sure if this is what u meant).

when u have AAQ6+2fds on T98ccss you have a little more than 40% eq assuming all ur flush outs are live, so....as long as we dont fold at a low SPR we really cant go wrong. whether raising is better depends on reads but i guess the spr is so low it doesnt matter much, just depends on whether u think he could be wider than just a str8 incentivizing you to raise the turn rather than call.

erdian 9 years, 10 months ago

Yeah I meant regarding the equity. I am little confused isnt 2/1 50% equity required since I am risking 100 to win 200. Or you take my 100+200 and divide it by 3 so you get 33% which means I will always get atleast 1/3rd off my money back in the long run and that is what makes the play breakeven?

spassewr 9 years, 10 months ago

ah, yea the mix up is quite common between the equity NUMBER which is a % and the odds, which are written in another format, basically what price the pot (or ur opponent) is laying you.

if theres 100$ in the pot, and ur opponent bets 100$, u would have to call 100$ to win 200$, so the pot is laying you 2-1 (pot size before bets+villains bet) -(your bet)...the dash doesnt mean "minus" btw. your risking 1 to win 2 basically, if u win more than 1 out of 3 you make money when you call. making money when you win more than 33% of the time, would be the same as if ur equity in the pot is 33% of course. so 2-1 or 33% is the same...i guess you could look at the % as if your bet is already in the pot....

thank god for ctrl+z, i just deleted everything i wrote by accident.

so if u look at my example with the 100 pot and the 100 bet. if u put ur call into the pot, theres now 300 in the pot, if u win more than 1/3 of the time, you will on average get back 100 from the pot (which means ur breaking even) and any win % number higher than that = you are making money being laid those odds (or with that equity)

maybe i just confused you further....some1 else could maybe clarify, or u can try googling it.

my advice if you easily get confused: use the %, or the equity and screw the old-timey odds....the eq % is used more often in software tools and when youre doin your own calcs.

some good numbers to remember on the river:

if villain bets 50% pot > you need to win 25% of the time to breakeven

if villain bets 75% pot > you need to win 30% of the time to breakeven

if villain bets 100% pot > you need to win 33% of the time to breakeven

since you are a PLO player, there wont be any overbetting....but lets say that you are in a situation where you think you have a profitable check raise bc your draw has good equity vs most of his range, your sitting on a $200 stack and theres $100 in the pot and villain has you covered....SPR is 2 in other words>>> you need 40% to stack off. so if villain bets 75$ into the $100 pot with $125 behind, if we knew we had at least 40% eq vs his gii range, we could profitably x-r ai even if we know have 0 fold equity.

as the spr increases to 3 and 4 and 5.....the equity needed to profitably stack off slowly approaches 50% (makes sense right)

a double nfd with all its outs live, will usually have 40%+ eq ott vs a str8....since villain is more likely to have a str8 than a set/2p here (and prob not a FD since most ppl tend to xr a str8+fd) most likely at least 90% of ur outs are live on average. so as long as the spr is 2 or less, you have a profitable stack off. this isnt nec the best way to play the hand, but that line is always available should you decide that you cannot outperform your equity in the pot by calling for example (if u knew he had a str8, you would just call the turn and bet when you improve, and fold on all other rivers even if u river trips).

at least its always a good sign when you know exactly what you need to work on! makes life easier than not knowing at all

erdian 9 years, 10 months ago

Thank you ALOT of that post, it did clearify ALOT off things. Because I thought I made a math mistake by calling off his turn shove(He did have QJ52s or something like that) So i thought I am making a loosing play by calling off with 40% since in my mind I required atleast 50% to breakeven. Well nice to know I actually made the right play :). My reason for checking was that the fish would jam and then I can stack off. In this spot I just wanted AS MUCH money in as possible!

Anyway well done Spassewr for the explanation you just thought me something new and valueable by taking a couple off mins off your time. Well hopefully I can return the favor someday to you or the community :D!

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