$0.25/$0.50 Middle Set facing Flop 3bet 140bb deep
Posted by Chris Bowling
Posted by
Chris Bowling
posted in
Low Stakes
$0.25/$0.50 Middle Set facing Flop 3bet 140bb deep
Btn - Hero - $71.74 - Ad Jd Js 7h
MP - $648.11 -86/49 over 37 hands *Villain has shown 3betting me with AJ95ds BB vs Btn and giving up on a low board 3 streets with a pair of 5's. Seems to be a little more thoughtful maybe and not a complete bad aggro maniac like you might expect of a rec playing that loose.
BB - $12.48
Preflop:
MP raises $1.75, Hero calls Btn, BB calls.
Flop (~$5.25): Qd Jh 7c
BB checks. MP bets $2.62, Btn raises to $9.00, MP raises to $32.23, Btn (hero)?
Flop:
So on the flop, villain is opening pretty wide and there is quite a few bad turns, so I go with a flop raise IP. Was thinking with the small half pot bet and a lot of bad turns, I don't mind just winning the pot now, and if he calls, I think sometimes players don't have a leading range as often as they should and I can always check back on a bad turn. Also, think villain could perceive my smaller than pot raise as attacking his flop c-betting range since he is super wide preflop, but maybe he's not thinking that in depth. Once I face the flop 3bet though, puke. It seems like we are crushed by QQ or flipping vs a wrap, especially since we block a 7. I'm guessing I should just call/call here on blank turns. Maybe fold on a wrap completing turn? Wondering if I should have been just flatting flop? If I did flat flop, I guess on bad turns, I would mostly be going call/call flop/turn and evaluating river? What do you guys think about this spot?
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My impression of MP is a player type I've encountered many times in PLO: LAG pre and weak-tight post.
I'm not going to go through the process of node-locking with Monker to confirm, but I suspect that raising sometimes and flatting sometimes here is likely fine.
But if we have to pick one option (and, because of the rules of the game and—like—spacetime, I guess we do):
Knowing that I'm biased due to seeing villain's raise, I do think that raising opens us up to too much expensive bad news. I think it's important to consider our aggression in light of how it manipulates our opponent's range, and when our flop raise strengthens our opponent's range to be only QQ and wraps... I just think there's a lot of merit to keeping the pot smaller and keeping our opponent's range weaker.
We have backdoor nut diamonds as well as backdoor broadway, and being in position on this board I think we'll realize our equity pretty well. We unblock wraps and block the lower set (as well as one of our FH "outs", whether we're already ahead or not)... so I just see a lot of merit to a more cautious line here.
But, again, I can feel my bias showing.
Reraise allin.
His flop range playing 80/50 will be incredibly wide. 140bb is not really deep.Tis playertype won't be playing according to your assumptions. The half pot sizing otf is not indicating a strong hand neither, he will be likely bluffing lots of weaker hands than 13-nutwraps. He will probably stack-off hands like AA, AKK, KQT, QJ probably you will even see Q7, JT97, T987 sometimes. Even if he does not stack-off worse made-hands than set, he does not need to bluff that often to make your midset +ev.
To become more comfortable with stack-offs, you can assign villain a range in ppt and compare the showdown eqiuty to the required pot equity. You will see, even vs a tagg-ish solid range you will already have around 40% Equity.
I agree. Before see this post i think in only wrap combos + QQ and even vs this range we have a 45% of equity. Shove:
5.25+2,62+32.23+9
POT 49,1$
51 (Stack HEro)
51$+49$ = 110$
51$/110$ = 46,3% Worst hands have to pay to do a Breakeven shove for value
I dont know if the math is fine. But if we put just wraps and QQ we have 45% of equity (That means we are near to do a breakeven shove) https://prnt.sc/p7h8bp also i put 25% that is pretty tight for this guy. But if you put just one combo more worst like AAKT,QJKK,AQK,ect you going to be near to do a ev shove https://prnt.sc/p7h9c6 , if you think the player cant have this type of combos you can pay and in turns A,K,T,9 and 8 (No diamond fold)
es=effective-stack
dm=dead-money
you have to calc allin(es) / (pot + dm + 2x allin(es))= 70 / (17+ 2x70) to get your allin-equity.
so You have around 44% Allin-Equity Pot Equity you need to break even.
"Worst hands have to pay to do a Breakeven shove for value"
not correct neither, you have to do an EV calc where you account for ranges and each equities in case of calling or folding.
Calling and evaluating. No reason to narrow his range even further, keep in the few bluffs he has and see if he wants to barrel missed wraps.
3bet pre. Pairs t+ an A blocker and nut suit are standard 3bets against ranges much tighter than his.
Otf, you should make up your mind before raising how you would respond to a 3b. Neither flatting nor calling is bad vs the cbet. When he pots its not a great spot but we know he makes loose aggressive plays pre and we have the 2nd nuts. Just because he didn't bluff with 5s in a previous hand doesn't mean he can't overvalue QJxx here. 37 hands is nowhere close to enough to consider folding the 2nd nuts here. Calling makes no sense either. Stick it in.
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