Value of Fantasy Land
Posted by Mikey Stotz
Posted by
Mikey Stotz
posted in
Open Face Chinese
Value of Fantasy Land
I'm not sure if anyone has discussed it before but I was wondering if anyone had an idea for the value of fantasy land. It seems like everyone goes for plays with very low odds of working to get there so you'd think the EV of being in fantasy land would have to be massive to justify taking these long shots.
I realize that it's probably hard to calculate because it's more than simply calculating the average strength of each tier and calculating the value of those hands because you might intentionally tank the bottom for a huge top royalty when in FL but there has to be a way to get an idea of the value. Even if we don't want to explore math calculations I'm curious what others would say the value is just based off empirical evidence.
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It is a great question to ask, i was wondering the same. recently fb app opened and i tried play some, and silly as it is, 4 handed i gained massive against players who were hand after hand trying to get to fantasy land, not to mention i had crap as bad as one pair of tens up front !! 4 way
Amount those players lost getting to FL from my observation by far doesn't meet their investment in all hands they lost previously
As of a couple months ago, some of the good high stakes players were valuing FL at 13pt/hand. I'm not sure if that number was derived mathematically, or estimated from experience. I also don't know if it includes the added value of staying in FL.
Everyone that I've heard talk about it tend to valuate it at around 12-15 points per person. This would make sense from experience because your hand strength tends to net you a bit less than that on average (at least from my own experiences) but you also gain value from being able to stay in FL.
A majority of the people you play with will however tend to go for FL regardless of the odds because it's simply the most fun aspect of the game for most people. Usually I will simply join in on the fun (lowers my EV but makes me neutral-EV in the game at worst so not a huge deal) but if you are purely trying to make $$$, take advantage of it and enjoy their mistakes!
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