A Live Poker Player's Thoughts
Posted by NeverUpswing
Posted by
NeverUpswing
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Live Poker
A Live Poker Player's Thoughts
Hey guys, I've been playing live poker seriously for the better part of past two years. In two months, I'm officially "going pro" , after having built my roll from scratch. But I have been clouded by troubling thoughts in my mind recently.
Specifically when compared to online pros, I realized how blessed they are to have all their stats and hand histories stored in a database system which give them endless opportunities to improve multiple aspects of their game from various angles of sorts. For example, if one wanted to find leaks in OOP SRP pots, they can exactly filter out what they need in order to solve their problems.
My question is, as a strictly live poker player, what are the best methods for always staying ahead of the curve? I know this question is very broad and open ended, but I want to have as open minded of a discussion as possible. Since we don't have the luxury of utilizing programs at our disposal, how can a live player be truly confident in his play in the long run and not just chuck it as riding out positive variance? I ask this because I am most afraid of one day becoming complacent of my own game and never improving enough.
Cheers,
Kev
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Specializing in live play doesn't mean you can't use all of the same programs that online crushers use. For starters, you still have access to online poker basically anywhere and can put in some hands to analyze in a database. Doing this at smaller stakes just for the sake of practice and review might be a good option if you aren't confident you can beat your normal stakes online.
Secondly, I'm not sure how feasible this is as I've never looked into it, but I think there are ways to buy or share database histories with others, if you are keen on practicing database analysis then this might be the way to go if you don't want to put in the volume yourself. Finally, programs ranging from poker stove to flopzilla to Piosolver are available and aren't necessarily inherently more useful for an online player vs a live player.
Never,
I agree with Kevin that if you are playing live, you can still hone your game online and utilize stats to do so.
But if you were looking to take advantage of stats 'live' ? hmmmm
I could see two directions to go in...
1/ Go with your own stats and try to see areas of improvement
2/ Go with population reads and try to figure out max exploits
so how do you gather stats live? Keep track!
first, all of this will be a slow process, but lets pick population reads.
what percentage does the average player Cbet the flop. since its live, and thus slower, hiw about we also keep track if IP versus OOP
each time PFR checks, you mark 'No' under the OOP or IP column ( yes, inmy case I use a phone note). If they bet, you instead mark "Yes" in either the OOP or IP column.
do this for a week and you will have 7 times 30 times however many average hours you play.
now, there are lots of things wrong to just blindly use this info... But there are always issues with using HUD stats blindly. So pick a stat that once you know it- it will be valuable to use as an exploit. Then figure out what are the minimum number of factors required to make the stat accurate. If it is feasible, start keeping track
one caveat- keeping track of anything will keep you from observing other things in game. So make sure you csn do it without costing more EV than its worth
which
I would suggest it is impossible to stay ahead of the curve by solely playing live. If anything it is far too easy to develop bad habits, sometimes based on localised player pools and trends within that pool - as naturally you will be playing an exploitative strategy.
To make a living as a live MTT pro you need to play up the stakes somewhat - and in these arenas you will run across some better players that play online. I'd therefore suggest that you mix in some sort of online volume - and watch videos on here. Again, this will help you build a DB that can be used for analytical purposes.
Live is a completely different game that online, involving much more information AND much fishier opponents. Stay ahead of the curve? Keep playing, keep accurately putting people on hands relative to bet sizes and physical tells, keep making long term profitable moves, and keep playing at night where everyone is drunk. :)
I think the money in live cash is in discovering exploitative plays that work well against opponents who are weak because they tilt / give off tells and have a horrible-to-mediocre fundamental understanding of poker math and strategy. In other words, studying to stay ahead of a curve when it comes to general cutting-edge strategy is nowhere near as valuable as working out strategies on your own which are targeted to your specific opponents.
eg, taking a lot of mental (or written) notes during and after play, like:
- seat 3 has folded many rivers so I'll adjust by showing more strength on later streets
- seat 4 hasn't laid a drawing hand down since the 80s so I'll value bet super thin (or size larger in NL/PL)
- almost all players in my game seem to c-bet flops HU after raising pre near 100% so i'll tighten up a bit in the blinds and CR flops more
After a recent trip I wrote out a list of 20 or so general points (like #3 above) about a game I'd just played for 200 hours and discovered obvious leaks in my game. That was a highly valuable few hours of study for me. It's probably something one could devote an hour or two to per 100 hours played.
I'm trying to look for more and more exercises like that which are tailored to my game. I think attacking poker study in a personal and specific way is effective, but that for some reason a lot of players don't want to approach it like that. Like self-help/self-reflection for your strategy, thinking deeply on your specific game and opponents, and also on your own mental states (considering things like tilt, stress, and motivation).
I think that a bot that could play a truly great GTO strategy would earn much much less in a live poker game than a human player who knew the game conditions well and was good at adjusting -- even if said player applied only good (not great) fundamental strategy and math.
If you have no specific common sense ideas on how to exploit an opponent, then you should consider them very strong and avoid them. If you're a serious player with decent fundamentals, and you find many of your opponents are very strong, then you're probably playing very high stakes and moving back down to mid stakes is advisable.
Also, re: high stakes, it's worth noting how edges can diminish very drastically as stakes go up, and stress and risk of life tilt increase as your risk of big downswings and ruin increase, so it's really not worth moving up IMO until you're absolutely certain that the game is not full of very strong players and you have a clear and articulable strategies for exploiting a decent % of the players you will face (getting back to the idea that most profit is in exploiting weakness, not in beating the best).
That was an awesome response
well thought out response NU
"seat 4 hasn't laid a drawing hand down since the 80s" LOL
My two cents.Just observe the table dynamics,and the way bar regs o random gamblers play and try to adjust.In general,in low stakes live,everyone is a station and quite loose until proven otherwise.Just try to iso limpfests with good hands,or limo behind with speculative hands that play well multiway postflop.Patience is needed,no one will think that you are a lesser man if you fold a lot Also keep in mind that since open raises are usualy 6-10bb, if there are two callers,the spr is gonna be small more often than not.Unless there is a deep game,but as far as i know,small stakes live have capped buyins So carefull about your postflop game One last thing.Try to keep no less than 25 full buyins to your roll.Suckouts from fish can be brutal and cost stacks many times .Playing exploitative strategies against most opponents is the way,try balance if possible against good regs who observe and remeber.Otherwise gto/balance/depolarisation is a waste of brain energy and money against the random unknown,station,fish etc..Your ultimate goal is to make money,not compete against the best.If a table is not worth your time,dont sit,just leave.Gathering experience about live tells,behaviour,body language etc will improve your game unavoidably.
However If you are the isildour/jeans/sauce kind of player who wants to improve by constanstly battling against the best...good luck..
elcanon and dimitrismaster, thank you for those awesome responses!
I also play live three times a week, and I have been crunching my brain coming up with an optimal live strategy.
The few observations I've made which make the biggest differences from online are:
Much larger opening raise sizes
Much deeper games (500 or 600bb effective stacks not uncommon)
Much more open limping and limping behind
Much less preflop fold equity
Many more weak and medium hands winning huge pots.
I feel like the optimal strategy to beat this kind of game is to play an old-school TAG style (circa 2008). In many of the live games I play, the play is extremely loose and passive, with a handful of LAGs. Typically the loose passive players lose frequently, and the LAGs frequently go on wild swings with huge variance
I have worked with live players and used a lot of GTO thinking to start with and then see where we could lure players into making bigger mistakes or where live players leak more than online players or specific players. Pio is a nice helper there. You don't really want to play super GTO in live games, but it is a good point to start from and also helps with learning to think deeper and in different directions.
Imho it is dangerous to be complacent wherever you play, online or live, it is more about the mindset and habits you build. Quality as a way of life (I made a post about this).
http://www.runitonce.com/feed/#comment-233503
You need to live this way to not become complacent. You need to consistently find challenges to live a life of more excellence, which does not mean, you have to be fully on all the time, but rather, when you do something, do it for real.
There is a cool quote out by someone (not sure who), but Alex Fitzgerald uses it a lot....
"How you do anything, is how you do everything"
He emphasizes this to highlight that it is a discipline to do your best, give total concentration as much as possible.
On the flip side, "slacking off" can be habit forming as well.
TK
Love that quote, I heard it from Tim Ferriss in 2016, it was love at first hight (hear/sight) ;)
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