Zoom50nl tough spot with overpair in a deep 4bet pot.

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Zoom50nl tough spot with overpair in a deep 4bet pot.

Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players) BN: $91.55 (Hero)
SB: $50.00
BB: $54.29
UTG: $182.19
MP: $134.59
CO: $50.00
Preflop ($0.75) Hero is BN with J J
UTG folds, MP raises to $1.17, CO folds, Hero raises to $4.00, 2 folds, MP raises to $13.25, Hero calls $9.25
Flop ($27.25) 8 2 T
MP bets $8.28, Hero calls $8.28
Don't think we get to raise any hands here, maybe if we were shallower jj i would consider it a bit more.
Turn ($43.81) 8 2 T 9
MP bets $21.74, Hero calls $21.74
Theoretically, villain should never bet this turn. I tank called because I wasn't sure if I should be raising or not.
River ($87.29) 8 2 T 9 5
MP bets $91.32 and is all in, Hero folds
Final Pot MP wins $85.29
Rake is $2.00

Villain seemed like a reg, playing 4 tables, but I have no hands on him. So not sure about his 4betting range, or his turn range. Although I feel that he is more likely to flat hands like kjs and ajs, and 4bet ak. The pool (given rake structure) under folds to 3bets, and doesnt 4bet enough. It is possible we just got owned if he just bets all his ak with a heart, but really not sure what he's doing. Honestly just pretty lost in this hand. Would love to hear peoples thoughts on what they think this guy's range looks like.

28 Comments

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akissv7 6 years ago

Depending on the type of 4 table player on these stakes hes most likely from NIT to LAG as if he plays like a fish he would loose to much money. So would give opponent a TAG style.

Now a good TAG will show in a 4 bet pot (MP vs BTN) with almost only value hands (QQ+,AK or even a better range) (and will give up almost all none value hand that don't hit something in a 4 bet pot). You might even consider folding against his 4 bet I know I would consider it.

Well with AA with a heart in it I would for sure bet this turn as I want to extract maximum money from KK and as I also have a redraw to the NUT flush that would a sound strategy in my opinion.

The villain should by the way not be concerned that you could have a straight on this board as and even a flush is very unlikely certainly if villain would have a high heart that would mean you would have called his 4 bet with QJ and that would be against his range a big mistake that in the long run would win him more then he would loose this particular hand.

LoveUknow 6 years ago

Hello friend. If you want to I will run this hand through GTO+ soon.
It is just solving right now so we´d need to wait a bit.
Then you at least know what you should do in theory. Depending on your opponent´s tendencies you then can adapt.

All I need for that is your 3B range vs villain and his 4B range. That´s what you have to guess given the pool´s tendencies, since noone 3B/4B close to optimal in these games (me included).

However you will have to take it with salt. It´s my first day working with a solver, but if you want to I will try my best to give you this information!

therapist 6 years ago

I've already tried pioing this hand. It's interesting because he should be checking turn 100% as it crushes my range. My play all depends on how often he is bluffing with AK (with a heart).

akissv7 6 years ago

The problem I have with this is that he might not recognize that your able to call a 4 bet with 99, TT and QJs so hes not seeing that you crush this board.

ganbate 6 years ago

i would follow ur line . He could have some AKs or AA/KK with hears, so it is a tough spot to call with only a single pair.

therapist 6 years ago

The problem is AA/KK is likely too thin to shove river with. If he recognizes this, he just has one or two combos of flush, and 6 possible combos of AKo with a heart for bluffs. And I think I need 26% equity on the river.

Samu Patronen 6 years ago

I'm hesitant to believe that villain is taking advantage of you in any way here. He probably just plays AA/KK like this because he would feel uneasy about playing these hands as checks and he figures that he doesn't want to give you free cards on a board like this. He can also have a few flushes. If he does play AA/KK like this, there's almost no way he can overbluff here, given the general passivity of the player pool and the tight 4betting range. Even if he shoves all AKo with a heart, JJ is like breaking even or something.

To put it another way, if we think he doesn't play AA/KK as value like this, what would make us jump to the conclusion that villain would think of this as a good bluffing spot?

therapist 6 years ago

Well he doesn't have to think it is a good bluffing spot. Just has to look down at AKo with a heart and realize it is the best bluff combo. And if he does bluff all his ak heart combos he needs about 18 value combos to make my river fold ok.

He has 6 combos of AA, KK with a heart blocker, and about 2 combos of flush.

Samu Patronen 6 years ago

AKo with a heart is 6 combos, so he needs 12 value, right?

I guess my main point is simply that I don't see how we can discount overpairs more than we can discount AK. If the argument for him not having overpairs is that it's not optimal to bet them, that applies to AK all the same.

therapist 6 years ago

But it is definitely optimal to bet AK here. So if he is a decent player he should recognize that AA is now too thin a value bet, but AK (with heart) makes a good bluff.

Samu Patronen 6 years ago

I thought you said that villain is supposed to check 100% on this turn (according to PIO)? Did you mean with overpairs or with entire range?

impregnatio 6 years ago

Q1: Anyone raising flop? Say $28 (which is about what hero put in by calling two streets). Reasons to raise flop include: (i) aiming to get AK no heart/one heart to fold; because calling flop and seeing an A, K, Q on turn puts us in a tough spot (ii) raising flop possibly slows villain down on turn. x/x turn and river would be a good result if we want to play it that way or we can consider betting turn if checked to. If shipped on I guess we fold, believing the 4B is a monster (in a field that "doesnt 4bet enough").

Q2: As played is anyone semi-bluffing turn?
Repping flush, maybe QJ with an overpair, str draw, fl draw, what are your reasons why? why not?

Q3: What do you make of the 30% pot bet on flop and 50% pot bet on turn and all in just over 100% pot on river? Any general trends this pattern reps?

Personally, as played, it feels like he has AhKx or AhKh... nuts or nothing... I think AxAx or KxKx just check calls river. I think folding river is ok though I don't like calling turn and folding river in general. Only have to be right 1/3 here so it might be worth making the call on those odds and consider the info/taking notes a trade-off worth making. Is making a slightly -ve call sometimes worthwhile if you likely play the same villain again and again?

My summary of this hand would be (i) I think a flop raise could get AK to give up which is a good result OR if shoved on we make a decision here to go with hand or not - but we are crushed by overpair/flipping v AhKh/in good shape against AxKx that bluff shoves but this last scenario seems least likely and that (ii) calling down could bluff catch AhKx that triple barrels esp after picking up equity on turn or we lose to overpair/nut flush. I think overall I raise fold flop and hope villain folds AK.

therapist 6 years ago

Q1. I considered raising JJ, but we can never fold to a shove once we raise (oop can just shove his flush draws at us )and given we are so deep, I think there is more ev in just calling. Seeing an A or K does not put is in a tough spot, it makes it very easy for us (we just fold). A much tougher spot is facing barrels on blanks. I think we make the most ev from our range here by having no raises.

Q2. Shoving turn is a good play the more villain is barreling Ak with a heart, as it puts that hand in an awful spot.

Q3. Sizing seemed extremely standard. Would expect him to size all his bluffs and value the same.

akissv7 6 years ago

Q1: I agree with therapist

Q2: Shoving turn seems awful to me why would made flush shove being in position. I would prob call with AA and KK and would fold AK except ofc AhKh. So I would prob play perfectly against a turn shove.

Q3: For me this line represents a slightly bigger range then you suggest I would certainly not exclude AA entirely. AA with the A of hearts in it is for me as your range looks like either a made hand with a flush or an overpair and as I would never fold AA in this situation against a bet, I would bet out myself to extract value from an overpair that most likely would check back for showdown value. Oh and 4 bet pots tight players almost do need river bluffs in those.

impregnatio 6 years ago

The benefits of raising flop are to get 15/16 combos of AK to fold and avoid us being bet off our hand on a later street. AhKh obv not folding. As you guys mentioned that hand is liking jamming.

If we don't want to get a worse hand to fold then why aren't we raise calling a jam? (or as played calling the river?) I feel like if we call the turn we have to call the river (unless fourth heart comes or A or K - agree with therapist that makes it easy - just fold).

The river was a total blank so why fold river? Because he fired third barrel? Is that a good enough reason? He absolutely has to fire third barrel if he has AhKx or AxKx.

16 combos of AK - 15 we are ahead of on the flop and one we flip with AhKh
18 combos of AA, KK, QQ (6 each). As played I think an argument can be made that 2-1 on a river call is +ve when there are 15 combos we beat and 19 we lose to. Perhaps we chop v JJ or even have another couple of combos we beat v AQ (though probs unlikely in 4B pot in a field that "doesn't 4B enough").

Re akissv7 point about jamming turn - (i) we may have some fold equity against AA, KK, QQ with no heart, (ii) we are in good shape against AhKx and give that hand bad odds to chase plus (iii) against AA, KK, QQ that calls we have 6 outs to straight that don't bring flush and 2 outs to set. If fl draw is live we have another 9 outs (iv) we are drawing dead. I'm not sure how to weight each of those four. If it were 25% each then its +ev.
NB I think fact (i) is smaller pot than others is offset by times AhKx decides to fold on turn due to bad odds

Minor point: I don't think having Jh is a factor at all. I don't think we block AxJh in a 4B pot. Even if we had JJ without Jh I think its irrelevant in this spot.

Major point: The more I think about this hand I wonder if the player pool in a 4B pot is more likely to call a 3B with AK and only 4B QQ+. Additionally, perhaps they give up more easily with AK after being called once/twice.

I really like this post, thanks Therapist

impregnatio 6 years ago

So if villain hand is heavily geared towards QQ+ then perhaps a turn shove has more value? If our FE on turn is say 25%-30% (half the AA, KK, QQ hands will have no heart) and villain calls 70%-75% then we have EITHER 8 outs with one to come v AhAx and KhKx and 6 outs v QhQx, OR we have 17 outs v AA (no heart) and KK (no heart) and 15 outs v QQ (no heart).

akissv7 6 years ago

As said I would prob bet any AA here as it a 4 bet pot as it more likely that one beats the opponent here with AA and get a call from KK or worse.

Flop raising is certainly a possibility as villain could have AK and prob fold AK but that is also a bit speculative as we dont know the 4 betting range of the villain which can be either very tight or more loose with e.g. only AKs and no AKo and if he 4 bets AKo he might be willing to call a bet with the AhKx as he can continue on any heart and on any A or K.
All depends on what the actual 4 bet range on 50NLz from MP against BTN is.
The stats I have from playing poker stars 50NLz show an average of 7% 3 bet only so the 4 bets so be very tight at least on poker stars. Actual VPIP is on average 22% and 4 bet 7% so on average that's only 1.5% of hands.

belrio42 6 years ago

You're both very deep, so Villain's 4-betting range should be quite tight.

The board runs out as good as can be expected for JJ. If I was Villain, and I had a overpair, I would likely check at least one street. Villain is really representing AhKh, AhQh, KhQh or TT exactly. That's just 6 combos.

I would find it hard to fold here, but it's a gross spot for sure.

impregnatio 6 years ago

My first thought was very similar but then I wondered if check calling a bet on river and losing to a flush would be offset by betting river and getting additional value from an underpair if we held AA/KK. Betting river/check calling river means our money goes in and we lose but if river goes check check and we win we lose value.

(btw not sure we going to see AhQh, KhQh, TT in too many 4B pots in a field that "doesn't 4B enough" - this hand a good example of why taking notes is so important)

impregnatio 6 years ago

Oh man I've only just realised that on the turn our hero has put in $42 out of a $91.55 stack. I definitely think its a fold or commit situation on the turn... definitely calling river as played. Its $50 to call to win $137...

akissv7 6 years ago

Lol just looked up the only 4 bet frequency I see in 50NLz on pokerstars which is only 7% and with a VPIP of 22% that is an average of only the top 1,5% of hands. Meaning that a lot of villains will only not show up with AKo here.

Ganesh 6 years ago

I agree that Flop is a call only IP. I'd note that raising to protect equity is less important IP because villian will not have option to check back turn and realise his river equity.

Regarding the turn spot, V has deviated far from optimal but I'd assume his range is strong flushes (AKhh and Axhh from the pre-flop bluffing range), maybe AAh at a stretch for value and high equity bluffs ( basically AKo 1 heart). Therefore, I'm going to prefer to defend hands with higher equity vs V bluffing range and/or ability to improve vs his value range.

Continuing with AhKx and 2pr + on turn. JJ and QQ just don't perform well vs the range we give Villian so I'm fine folding them right away. As played, JJ is stone bottom of your range on river so not worried about folding fold. FWIW I'd be folding straights and 2 pr on river and calling flushes and sets.

therapist 6 years ago

Yes I would much rather have a set to continue on turn. I don't have any pair here. Even pio doesn't know what to do with my hand on the turn, mixing between call/fold and raise. But I think folding all my over pairs with a heart is over folding here, especially if villain is betting a decent amount of AhK. I think I can safetly fold all my QQ but continue with JJ and KK with hearts.

I also don't think folding straight on the river is a good strategy. Villain can easily be betting with AhA and AhK, making all my QJ combos massively +ev.

dayung 6 years ago

Anyone here that has a preflop solver? I was wondering how ranges differ from having a 3x 3bet or a 3.5 and for 4bet the difference between 2.5x and 3x. For defending and aggressor.

Dubious 6 years ago

Yes, it's possible he way overbluffs this spot since he would likely check AA, KK at some point. It's also very possible that he's the type of player that will never bluff and will just shrug his shoulders and bet/bet/shove with AA, KK.

I think your range has enough nutted hands that you don't need to call JJ with a heart. (Though I guess that depends on your 3bet/call range). And I wouldn't trust the POSSIBILITY that he's overbluffing enough to expand my range this far. I mean if you think about what weaker hands can you even have here....?

impregnatio 6 years ago

This post is doing my head in, thanks therapist...

We have a 183BB stack, the button, and JJ in a 4bet pot. All we know about villain is he's playing four tables.

Are we:
a) set mining, folding flop
b) raising flop (raise/fold? raise/call off?)
c) calling flop, folding turn
d) calling flop, raising turn
e) calling flop and turn, folding river.
f) calling down
g) folding pre-flop

Some of these seem ridic obviously but I only think a,b,c,d to be viable. Maybe f too. Without a better idea of villain likelihood of 4betting AK v calling a 3B w AK its an awful spot. The more I think about a random in a pool that doesn't 4B enough the more I'm folding flop.

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