UTG is a reg, MP is a recreational player. I'm 3betting AQs+ AK JJ+ there, cbetting JJ+ AQ/AKcc, Checking JJ/QQ on turn, barrelling KK/AA + the draws. On river I'm betting JJ, checking QQ. Always folding to that sizing, not sure on smaller sizing. I realize that sizing is more likely to be polarized, but it just doesn't seem like regs bluff rivers much at NL25, let alone potting it after I bet into two people including a recreational on the flop. I also don't think he'll be value betting anything besides JJ/Some % AA/KK on river but can probably find a call with QQ.

Should I just assume he's somewhat balanced between missed draws and JJ here and be calling with QQ half the time so I'm not exploited? Should I be checking JJ on the river rather than literally only having one hand that I'm betting, and then only call with QQ 25% of the time? I just really don't think regs are bluffing here that often, but obviously this line is super exploitable, and it's possible I'm not giving regs near enough credit.