ZOOM100- fold TPTK to a nit's raise?

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ZOOM100- fold TPTK to a nit's raise?

BN: $118.50
SB: $100
BB: $213.27 (Hero)
UTG: $136.84
HJ: $109
CO: $253.87
Preflop ($1.50) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt A K
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $2.50, BN calls $2.50, SB folds, Hero raises to $10, CO calls $7.50, BN calls $7.50
Flop ($31.50) 2 A J (3 Players)
Hero bets $15, CO folds, BN calls $15
standard cbet being 200bb deep w/ CO?
Turn ($61.50) 2 A J 5 (2 Players)
Hero bets $30, BN raises to $93.50, and is all in
BTN is a nit 18/13. His Agg% are 38/24/17. He wins 2/3 of the time when he raises the turn. Scatter is here: http://screenshooter.net/99995561/omesgik Is there any possiblity that he's doing that with AQ? There are 5 combos of this hand (AdQd excluded from his raising range).

In his value range he has 22, JJ, AJs for sure. I guess he can't have any backdoor flush draws since I cbet into 3 ppl on the flop. Do you agree? His FDs are than KQhh, QThh, KThh but I doubt he's shoving them.

MP2 23.18% 23.18% 0.00% AsKs
MP3 76.82% 76.82% 0.00% 22, JdJs, JsJc, AJs, KhQh, KhTh, QhTh

Is that a call or you'd be folding against such a nit? 

5 Comments

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JoINrbs 10 years, 5 months ago

We have like, 6 sets and some AJ here right? I think this guy is probably okay to fold. I don't know how far out of our way we really have to go to defend ourselves from the overcall 3bet, float flop, jam turn on a 1:1 bluff line.

LBN 10 years, 5 months ago

We need roughly 26% equity to break even here. So since he shoves AJs, 22 and JJ here which add up to 8 combos he needs to be shoving here at least 3 combos of draws (and that's assuming he doesn't hit any of the rivers). I wouldn't put AQ in his range, maybe just the AQdd combo but I doubt he'd shove it. So we're left with KJdd, QJdd, QThh, KQhh and it's not certain he would always play them this way. Being that close of a spot I think it's just a fold, especially against a nit. 

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