Zoom 200 - cool river CR spot
Posted by Nick Howard
Posted by
Nick Howard
posted in
Mid Stakes
Zoom 200 - cool river CR spot
SB: $231.69 (Hero)
BB: $200
UTG: $207.60
HJ: $686.68
CO: $814.89
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to $4, Hero calls $3, BB calls $2
at the time, this felt too thin to jam (PF we're about 115 bb effective) .. so i decided to use a really weird small sizing. probably never balancing bluffs tbh.
When i did some math on it , i gave villain ~80 value hands .. which is something like AT+. Maybe this is too thin, but i'm guessing hero wants to CR turn at a relatively high fqcy with 2pair+, which makes it seem like villain can v-bet sort of thin OTR. I didn't look at my river range though, it's possible that i could have enough BDF's that make even overpairs a clear check back for him.
anyway if he actually v-bets AT+, he has to felt about 51% of his river value betting range vs a CR shove .. which is about 42 combos. He's got about 20 better flushes in his range if he c-bets all his A and K high BDFD otf, which i think is reasonable. So it seems like the smaller raise sizing is actually sort of good.
That being said , if he never has overpairs in his range OTR, raising for any sizing looks very bad...
what would you guys v-bet in villain's shoes OTR?
Loading 9 Comments...
Man I may have to make this $94 so I didn't just officially check min-raise the river =)
So we've got 51 hands in his calling range and we want something like at least half of them to be worse than ours before we raise? If he can 56o then I get the following:
Sets -- 9 (possibly 12 but not likely)
Overpairs -- 18 (this is conservative but it should still make the point)
Straights -- 17 (56o + A5hh)
So that gives quite a bit of worse that he can be betting for value on this river (this is even ignoring JJ). With that said, his sizing seems fairly large for a naked overpair here, but I don't know what to make of this hand because when we talk about what he should be v-betting it revolves around what we should be calling, and I have no idea what a theoretical SB cold-call range should look like. Janda's got me pretty convinced it shouldn't even really exist.
hes got like 20 flushes so if its 50 felted then minraise looks like it gets value.. he can also rejam a couple bluffs tho
The possibility of him rejamming is no argument as you have a bluffcatcher against his jams - which means you´re break-even to call - and just lost your riverraise!
Additionally I´d say it´s not good for your riverrange (as you can see here) if you x/r the turn with all your 2pair+, you should just call - almost your entire range!
That said, I´d say against my range, valuebetting AT would be absolutely desastrous for him. :)
The absolutely one and only question is actually if you´re ahead of his calling-range. As mentioned, I don´t think he should (neiter do I expect him to) be valuebetting overly light, so you shove is pretty thin, I´d say likely too thin.
it would just slightly narrow the range he has to call with
V might not bet this size with his better flushes
What size do you think he bets?
He should pot or even overbet, but I don´t think we can rely on that? At least I am not good in guessing, what my opponents will or will not do. :)
i'm guessing he's suggesting larger betsizing too .. i think i'm overestimating how many bdfd i should actually have here, considering my turn range has to mix bdfd with fdfd .. and if i use too many of both i'm exploitable on too many brick rivers ... or maybe this is still ok? i don't know..
in practice i feel like most players would have most of their BDFD otf making flushes OTR .. which makes me think that villain would want to be careful overbetting with flush removal , if bdfd's make up a high portion of my river felting range vs overbet sizing
that being said if we have a lot of made BDFD we have lot of missed front door FD, so this would require us to defend wider OTR , which no longer makes removing flushes as big of a deal for villain when he uses large sizing
no comment but i bet 5 dollars he's got a set
Be the first to add a comment