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Zoom 200 - cool river CR spot

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Zoom 200 - cool river CR spot

BN: $528.21
SB: $231.69 (Hero)
BB: $200
UTG: $207.60
HJ: $686.68
CO: $814.89
Preflop ($3.00) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt J T
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to $4, Hero calls $3, BB calls $2
Flop ($12.00) T 4 3 (3 Players)
Hero checks, BB checks, BN bets $7.10, Hero calls $7.10, BB folds
Turn ($26.20) T 4 3 7 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BN bets $19.01, Hero calls $19.01
River ($64.22) T 4 3 7 2 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BN bets $46.67, Hero raises to $93.34

at the time, this felt too thin to jam (PF we're about 115 bb effective) .. so i decided to use a really weird small sizing.  probably never balancing bluffs tbh.  

When i did some math on it , i gave villain ~80 value hands .. which is something like AT+.  Maybe this is too thin, but i'm guessing hero wants to CR turn at a relatively high fqcy with 2pair+, which makes it seem like villain can v-bet sort of thin OTR.  I didn't look at my river range though, it's possible that i could have enough BDF's that make even overpairs a clear check back for him.  

anyway if he actually v-bets AT+, he has to felt about 51% of his river value betting range vs a CR shove .. which is about 42 combos.  He's got about 20 better flushes in his range if he c-bets all his A and K high BDFD otf, which i think is reasonable.  So it seems like the smaller raise sizing is actually sort of good.  

That being said , if he never has overpairs in his range OTR, raising for any sizing looks very bad...

what would you guys v-bet in villain's shoes OTR?


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