ZOOM 10NL Challenge Day 6 Hand 1
Posted by elbabbelino
Posted by
elbabbelino
posted in
Low Stakes
ZOOM 10NL Challenge Day 6 Hand 1
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (9 Players)
BN: $14.50
SB: $3.48
BB: $10.00
UTG: $10.02
UTG+1: $10.00 (Hero)
MP: $11.16
MP+1: $10.00
MP+2: $7.52
CO: $10.15
SB: $3.48
BB: $10.00
UTG: $10.02
UTG+1: $10.00 (Hero)
MP: $11.16
MP+1: $10.00
MP+2: $7.52
CO: $10.15
Preflop
($0.15)
Hero is UTG+1 with
K
K
, , , , ,
3% 3B vs EP. Calling superior over 4betting?
Flop
($1.95)
2
9
4
, ,
Turn
($4.15)
2
9
4
6
, ,
River
($8.35)
2
9
4
6
4
, ,
Villain CB 74(35)/19(16)/50(2) with AG% 33/25/19 overall.
OTT I reasoned that he might still valuebets QQ (even though I doubt it)
OTR I'm pretty confident he <10% of the time valuebets worse than KK and rarely ever blufs.
Feels gross, but fine fold?
OTT I reasoned that he might still valuebets QQ (even though I doubt it)
OTR I'm pretty confident he <10% of the time valuebets worse than KK and rarely ever blufs.
Feels gross, but fine fold?
Loading 14 Comments...
3% 3bet pre = JJ+, AK+. I would mostly go for the 4bet, despite the nitty stats, but I guess calling is fine as well (I play 6max so I am not familiar with this exact spot pre) . I think I would go for the call OTF as you did, and X/R OTT just cause players at these limits will rarely fold an overpair here and they are almost never bluffing river, so we extract max vs QQ and JJ or protect or equity vs AXdd. As it played out, I would call river, folding here just seems unreasonable. Sure he is going to show up with AA, but with a board as clean as this I doubt he is not value betting QQ and KK at least. We only need to win 25% here, so I think folding is a big mistake.
I am under representing my hand also, I guess you are right. I should have give him a higher frequency of QQ and if he can have QQ at a decent frequency I can never fold indeed. Turn XR interesting thought!
To be precise 3% is TT+ AKo+ AQs+ or it could be AA-QQ,AKs,A5s-A2s,65s.
KK has 66% equity vs linear range and 61% vs polarized range. Definitely a spot to 4bet preflop.
On this flop KK has 71.6% Equity against villain's linear range, and your hand will be best on the river about 81% of the time according to Flopzilla. (77.6% ott, and 75% otr against a range of TT+, and possibly AdKd, AdQd) We're only flipping otf against the polarized range because lots of GS+NFD etc.
As played I would x/r the flop for value against both those ranges (you don't have to x/r very large you could even just click it back considering low SPR, and obviously we're calling if he shoves)
As played I would snap-call this river. Donking otr is probably also a fine option. I think that folding there is a case of monster under bed syndrome (M.U.B.S).
Please explain why you are so confident in this read.
In hindsight, I am less confident in that read. However, I still feel like villain will have a narrower (value)betting range than the ones outlined by most commenters in this thread, because of:
- positions of both me and 3better
- very passive postflop (barrel)tendencies
-> blufs (also AdKd and AdQd) are rarely ever triple barreling with his postflop style
-> tendency to check back (too) strong valuehands is definitely present at 10NL and this player seems like a player who very Well may be such a one
Folding KK is indeed still a huge mistake, I am on board with that conclusion, for sure. Even the MUBS syndrom remark is appropriate for this fold. He just has enough QQ and the unlikely bluf or JJ or whatever to even consider folding.
However, If I were to have QQ here, I would prefer folding here and do not think it is that close. I just do not see this kind of player triple barreling at a decent frequency with JJ here and now he has 12 combos beating me.
Vs a range of QQ+,AdKd you are 51.85% favourite on the river. I don't think you can fold especially when under repped.
I agree
If you really think the pre flop 3bettor will x back the nut overpair -QQ- with great freq you are way off.
If we take a 3% 3B range as a given, plus his (extremely) passive, esp. Turn, barrel tendencies I would not be surprised to see him checking >33% of the time OTT/OTR combined with QQ.
You think his barrel tendencies will not influence how he plays his premium pairs (JJ-QQ esp.) postflop on dry runouts? What is the worst valuebet you expect him to make? QQ? JJ? TT?
Missed his stats. Does change things a bit of course, but I don't see much difference between how he plays QQ/AA on this run out.
Were hero to hold QQ in this exact spot vs this exact villain, would you still call?
Given your assumption we are then beat by 12 combos, so villain would need to either bet worse valuehands (JJ/TT) or blufs (AdKd/AdQd or 'random' AK/AQs) at a somewhat decent frequency.
Personally, I don't expect this player type to bet both of those parts of his range (nearly) enough to warrant calling. You agree?
I think his range is small enough combo wise, that the one pip difference between KK/QQ is actually significant. With wider ranges it is less the case. Here his only natural bluffs - and to be clear I don't mean best choice of bluff, just the ones he is most likely to use in my exp - are Ak/AQ fd, so with onyl 2 likely bluffs, and I think pretty low freq TT/JJ TB QQ feels a much easier fold than KK.
Thanks for providing me with more clarity tackling these spots in the future. More combinatorics understanding is definitively needed in my game. When starting to count the actual combinations of valuehands and blufs, it is so much the more obvious where the tresholds are, especially in spots with narrow ranges. Appreciate your help!
I think you played the hand well by cold calling preflop given the stats of your opponent. As played i definitely would not fold here. There are only 6 combos of AA and given the pot odds and how underrepped your hand is I think you need to call it off.
GL in the challenge!
Cheers! Would you fold QQ given his general postflop tendencies and now 12 combos beating us, or do you think those tendencies do not effect how he plays big pairs in this sort of a spot?
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