ZOOM 10NL Challenge Day 1 Hand 2
Posted by elbabbelino
Posted by
elbabbelino
posted in
Low Stakes
ZOOM 10NL Challenge Day 1 Hand 2
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (9 Players)
BN: $27.33
SB: $22.65
BB: $10.99
UTG: $9.03
UTG+1: $9.80
MP: $13.13
MP+1: $10.90
MP+2: $41.95
CO: $12.55 (Hero)
SB: $22.65
BB: $10.99
UTG: $9.03
UTG+1: $9.80
MP: $13.13
MP+1: $10.90
MP+2: $41.95
CO: $12.55 (Hero)
Preflop
($0.15)
Hero is CO with
7
7
, , , ,
CO-BUT vs smallish sizing I prefer putting 77 in the C3B-range
Flop
($1.55)
6
J
4
, ,
XC seems standard (enough EQ + villain will CB this board quite wide), planning to fold to a second barrel on most turns
Turn
($3.75)
6
J
4
K
,
River
($3.75)
6
J
4
K
5
,
I'm pretty close to the bottom of my range that I arrive on OTR. When villain XB OTT, he most likely is pretty damn capped.
When I bet the normal amount, I expect Jx to call way more often than not. If this is so, it doesn't really make sense to turn a hand with so much SDV into a bluf.
Yet when I bet really big, I believe he will fold Jx pretty much always, and might even fold some weak Kx.
I believe my line is quite credible (87s, JJ/66/44, KJs all in my range) in his eyes, and it's hard to find blufs for me.
I think this is a higher EV line than both X and B63%, and at worst it is similar EV (in which case I would make more with my valuehands that employ this sizing)
Fine?
When I bet the normal amount, I expect Jx to call way more often than not. If this is so, it doesn't really make sense to turn a hand with so much SDV into a bluf.
Yet when I bet really big, I believe he will fold Jx pretty much always, and might even fold some weak Kx.
I believe my line is quite credible (87s, JJ/66/44, KJs all in my range) in his eyes, and it's hard to find blufs for me.
I think this is a higher EV line than both X and B63%, and at worst it is similar EV (in which case I would make more with my valuehands that employ this sizing)
Fine?
Loading 6 Comments...
when villain checks the K, he represents 99-1010 and AJ. If he s got air, he will like always double barrel on that runout.
for that reason, bluffing the river make sense on your side.
the problem i have is the overbet here. it is so bluffy because you cant represent anything that it encourages hero calling.
it is a spot where i feel a smaller sizing would be better equity wise.
river shove doesn't look bluff at all, if I am villian I am going to put them on KJ,66,44,87
If your assumptions are reflective of reality, your conclusion as far as prefering to bet smaller instead of overbetting is rocksolid and I agree.
So I guess what it boils down to is what an average 10NL player thinks of this overbet.
I know that I arrive on this river with a bunch of strong valuebets, so that in reality I definitely have a good number of nutty hands in this spot.
Yet if the 10nl player doesn't think so, I shouldn't make this overbet.
I have to admit I wasn't paying enough attention in-game to this fact, that all that matters is what a 10nl player THINKS I can represent here, not what the actual reality of this spot for me is.
I mean maybe it matters, but I would still shove this combination anyways. You're not going to find too many better hand combos to bluff. Also I don't think we can make that assumption without a lot of perfect information about their perception of river overbets once they perceive themselves to be capped.
Playing a solid strategy is going to be a good idea, and this combo is a clear shove.
If they are actually over calling in these ridiculous spots, with a hand like QQ that doesn't block any of your value, they are going to be loosing a lot of money.
If that is the case, I would start shoving rivers for value instead of betting a nominal sizing. I would do that anyways at micro stakes since they are stations, but you aren't going to find many better hands than 77 in your range. Again the reason why 77 is such a powerful bluff is because when he does decide to use that sizing 2/3 on the flop with 88-TT, we still loose to them. We also loose to QJs, AJ, QQ etc. 77 is a good hand to shove.
First of all this looks like a reasonable assumption of what he will end up having here.
This is a range I assume someone will flat to a 3bet at 10nl. not really too sure about that.
I will already say that I think flop with 77 already in an interesting spot, and folding flop is not going to be the biggest mistake, espeically with how Micro guys construct their 3bet ranges, we aren't getting great odds, some of their overcard non pairs will just check, 77 is not too happy about this bet on Jxx. So folding flop might look tight, but range vs range it isn't going to be much of a mistake vs someone who is playing well...Vs a micro guy who is under 3betting and under cbetting for this larger sizings, certainly folding is ok.
If we are calling this on the flop and folding on this turn, as well as a bunch of other combinations like this, our flop call and fold turn ratio is going to given Villian an extremely profitable double barrel, and this is a board that double barreling with all of your bluffs on good turn cards is going to be more profitable then checking because of the way that people develop their flop calling ranges and turn folding ranges.
GTO solvers will call this flop at some frequency with 77. 7h7d is likely going to be a better call than 7s7d, but almost exactly the same.
If we get to the river with this combination, I think we have a pretty clear shove, and we will also shove AA, KJ, KQ(flop backdoor flushdraw), 66,55,44(if we ended up calling with these combinations), as well as our 87(backdoor flushdraw) combos we called flop with. 77 is one of our optimal bluffs and we loose to 88,99,TT, AJ, QJ. We will have enough hands to make shoving here profitable, and our river play should be a shove or a check mostly. 77 is a great candidate
Poignant observation that 77 in practice might be -EV already OTF. This very well could be the case, as weird as it seems given what my range looks like.
As far as I believe, and so far perceive in game the last days, people don't CB/CB often without the goods, so overfolding versus a double barrell is not really something I lose sleep over at this limit.
It actually was a 150% bet, not a shove, but I guess that doesn't really matters.
Your last paragraph pretty much summarizes my in-game consideration of the situation.
On an outside note: I like the way you go about analyzing these spots here on the forum. Keep it up! (and thanks, it gives me insight as well!)
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