ZOOM 100- fold nuts to a raise when draws are busto? :(
Posted by Used2BeKP
Posted by
Used2BeKP
posted in
Low Stakes
ZOOM 100- fold nuts to a raise when draws are busto? :(
BN: $249.84
SB: $107.22
BB: $100.75
UTG: $316.03
HJ: $217.47 (Hero)
CO: $44.88
SB: $107.22
BB: $100.75
UTG: $316.03
HJ: $217.47 (Hero)
CO: $44.88
Villain is unk. I have never seen him on zoom so far. He was playing 2 tables in that moment. He runs 27/18 after 100 hands.
Preflop
($1.50)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
5
5
UTG folds, Hero raises to $3, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, BB calls $2
UTG folds, Hero raises to $3, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, BB calls $2
Flop
($6.50)
A
5
T
(2 Players)
BB checks,
Hero bets $4.50,
BB calls $4.50
So far he has folded 0/3 to cbet. He seems more passive than not.
Turn
($15.50)
A
5
T
7
(2 Players)
BB checks,
Hero bets $14,
BB calls $14
River
($43.50)
A
5
T
7
K
(2 Players)
BB checks,
Hero bets $36.50,
BB raises to $79.25, and is all in
We've got 42 left and got to be good 20% of the time.
Obviously the only value combos he's shipping here are QJdd, QJhh. I think it's possible he has QJdd because it's a nice reversed float. I have never ever seen a bluff in a spot like this because a) all draws are busto b) he's repping so little. Should I be calling my set or make an exploitative fold?
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I'd call. Both flush draws missed, neither of which we block. AA/KK/TT likely 3-bet pre. 77 probably check-raises turn. And it's unlikely villain called two-barrels with just a naked QJ gutter. He could also CRAI with worse, such as AT/KT or some silly slowplayed AK.
BB flatting range consists of nearly every combo of suited hands from Q2-QJs, K2-KJs, A2-A9s, not to mention all of the suited 1 and 2 gappers that hit this board as well.
So yeah, his bluffing range can potentially be huge on this river and given the great pot odds we're getting I'm snapping.
Ehh, I generally don't fold when the nuts are less likely than top set (3 combos). If he never bluffs and we call, we lose a $1.20 (3% loss * $40). If he always bluffs and we fold, we lose $77.6 (97% loss *(43.50+36.50)).
Another way to think of this, if he bluffs 75 out of 10000 times, we need to call.
I also dont fold here, but why we loose 1.20$, when he never bluffs here and never valueshoves less with our call compared to folding?
Imo we loose then just exactly 42.75$ or do I miss something?
ah you made the math for EV-call before betting the river.
But imo you have to make it after facing the C/R (post betting the river) and compare it to EV_Fold which is then 0 (when we consider the point, after we betted OTR).
Again,
obv. Im not folding here, but just wondering bout your math-approach in this spot.
all right, I c now^^
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