Thanks for the complete explanation. But I wanna know why you raise OTT 3x or 4x, if we raise 3x pot will be something about $12 and we'll only have between $4 ~$5. Is it better to raise 2x and shove $7 in a pot of $9? I mean, we'll be committed when we raise of 3x or 4x on a non-brodway diamond river.

But I wanna know why you raise OTT 3x or 4x, if we raise 3x pot will be something about $12 and we'll only have between $4 ~$5. Is it better to raise 2x and shove $7 in a pot of $9? I mean, we'll be committed when we raise of 3x or 4x on a non-brodway diamond river.

The bigger you raise on the turn, the lower will be the minimal equity required by the risk-reward to go broke on the river in a profitable way.

Could you explain more detailed?

Could you explain more detailed?

If you have not learnt it yet, you must learn a formula called risk-reward. This formula is the following one: risk ÷ (risk + reward); it gives you the minimum percentage of success for a risk to be a profitable one. Some examples:

• when you are open-raising to 3bb in BVB, such a move has to succeed 62.5% of the time to be profitable: you are risking 2.5bb (your SB does not belong to you any longer) to be rewarded 1.5bb (the amounts of the SB and the BB), which gives 2.5 ÷ (2.5 + 1.5) = 0.625 and means the villain must defend the BB in BVB more than 37.5% of the time to prevent you from making an immediate profit;

• when you are c-betting 1/2 pot, you just need to succeed 1/3 of the time to have an immediate profit: 0.5 ÷ (0.5 + 1) ≈ 0.33 (you are risking 1/2 pot to be rewarded the pot);

• as played river on your hand, when facing the villain’s X / R shove, the risk is $3.99 (the amount to call) and the reward $16.65 ($5.66 in the pot when the river is being dealt + your $3.50 bet + $7.49, which is the amount of the villain’s X / R adjusted to the effective stack, as your stack is $3.98 lower than the villain’s one), the formula says 3.99 ÷ (3.99 + 16.65) ≈ 0.193, which means your hand must have at least 19.3% equity to call in a profitable way;

• now, imagine the villain decided to c-bet shove on the river instead of making a X / R shove: in this case, you would have had to risk $7.49 to be rewarded $13.15 ($5.66 in the pot when the river is being dealt + $7.49, which is the amount of the villain’s X / R adjusted to the effective stack), the formula says 7.49 ÷ (7.49 + 13.15) ≈ 0.363, which means your hand would have had to have at least 36.3% equity to call in a profitable way.

As your hand had 80% equity versus { KK+, KQs, KQo } on the river, these two last examples do not make any difference, but they would make one if your hand had only 25% equity versus the villain’s range: the risk would be profitable when risking $3.99 to be rewarded $16.65, but not at all when risking $7.49 to be rewarded $13.15. In other words, if you had raised on the turn and bigger, the amount you would have had to risk on the river would have been lower for a bigger reward.

Wow!

Thanks for this deep explanation. I got it.
But let's suppose we had a bluff there. We need to generate the maximum fold equity possible, right? and in this case we don't wanna minimun risk-reward instead of when we have a value hand as in the hand posted. So, would be better to just x/R 2x to generate enough fold equity when we'll have more than 60% pot behind? I'm talking about in general spots.

Are my thoughts right?

Thanks for this deep explanation. I got it.

My pleasure. :-)

But let's suppose we had a bluff there. We need to generate the maximum fold equity possible, right? and in this case we don't wanna minimun risk-reward instead of when we have a value hand as in the hand posted. So, would be better to just x/R 2x to generate enough fold equity when we'll have more than 60% pot behind? I'm talking about in general spots.

Generally, when you do not have enough fold equity and want the villain to fold a better hand than yours, you must overcome your fold equity deficit by the sizing: most of time you will overbet, especially when you think the villain’s range is capped. In this case, in terms of risk-reward, when overbetting 1.2 time the pot, you need to succeed 54% of the time (60% when overbetting 1.5 time the pot).

But, this move is easier to make when the villain checked or when you are the first to talk. As played turn here, it would be tough to raise in bluff in a 4-bet pot.