zNL5 - AK facing donk bet turn and big bet OTR
Posted by Alison95
Posted by
Alison95
posted in
Low Stakes
zNL5 - AK facing donk bet turn and big bet OTR
Blinds: $0.02/$0.05 (6 Players)
BN: $2.77
SB: $5.64
BB: $5.85
UTG: $4.27
MP: $5.66
CO: $5.66 (Hero)
SB: $5.64
BB: $5.85
UTG: $4.27
MP: $5.66
CO: $5.66 (Hero)
Preflop
($0.07)
Hero is CO with
A
K
, , , ,
Flop
($0.35)
5
A
6
, ,
Turn
($0.73)
5
A
6
8
,
River
($1.73)
5
A
6
8
2
,
Final Pot
SB
wins and shows a straight, Five to Nine.
SB wins $4.53
Rake is $0.20
SB wins $4.53
Rake is $0.20
So, board is kind of dry, it doesn't have any FD and villain donks me on the turn.
Villain was playing 30/15 on 150 hands, WWSF 35%. He was passive.
This is a bad call, or we can find a fold with AK here?
Loading 2 Comments...
What is your preflop raising range from the CO? Are you raising preflop stuff like 97s, 87s and 65s?
I think you have to call turn here. He could be drawing, and AK is pretty high up in your range.
You can perhaps fold river, because 43s also gets there, and his bet size is pretty large. This kind of donk-turn, bet river big usually indicates a pretty strong hand. He could show up with a lot of two pairs or straights here.
But this depends a lot on your opponent. Loose/passive opponents tend to play pretty straightforward in these spots. His WWSF seems very low.
I would fold AK. You probably have sets and two pairs in your range (stuff like A8s, A6s, A5s) which can call.
For sure he is a fishy player.
If we assume that he NEVER bluffs and he won't valuebet worse than TPTK, it's a fold indeed.
The game seems to be more a guessing game when we don't properly know his range and how his range is modeled when he went for that bizarre line.
He is giving you around 32% PO. Which means that his betting range on the river should be composed by at least 32% of bluffs/worse vbetting.
The worst case scenario would be these better valuecombos:
88, 66-55, A8s, A6s-A5s, 97s, 86s, 65s, 8h5h, 8s5s (44 combos). EDIT: I forgot the 43s, but it won't matter too much. I'm just trying to ilustrate in a bigger picture
This means that you should find at least 22 bluffing or worse value bet combos in his range in order to make a profitable call (not considering the rake).
Also, we can lower this number of 44 combos numbers since in real life the villain won't reach these combos in a 100% frequency exclusively in this line of Cold Call Pre | XC Flop | Lead turn | Bet river.
Then, it's up to you. Is this villain capable of bluffing/vbetting worse? If so, why not call? If he is not capable for wathever arguments (bet sizings, etc), then you can start exploitatively folding these hands.
For me, the main questionable thing is his bet sizing on the river. Usually people won't bluff a lot on A high boards, and usually people don't choose close to psb to bluff a lot. On the other hand he is fishy and probably can be value betting worse without knowing the relative strength of his Ax compared to yours.
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