zNL2 - 3Bet pot tough river decision
Posted by Alison95
Posted by
Alison95
posted in
Low Stakes
zNL2 - 3Bet pot tough river decision
Blinds: $0.01/$0.02 (6 Players)
BN: $2.12
SB: $1.91
BB: $2.51
UTG: $7.26 (Hero)
MP: $3.42
CO: $2.38
SB: $1.91
BB: $2.51
UTG: $7.26 (Hero)
MP: $3.42
CO: $2.38
Preflop
($0.03)
Hero is UTG with
K
A
, , ,
Flop
($0.39)
Q
A
4
,
Turn
($0.39)
Q
A
4
3
, ,
River
($1.55)
Q
A
4
3
K
,
Hey guys,
Villain was playing 20/15 on 60 hands, 12% 3bet (3/25).
When villain click rase turn and overshover river, I don't think he has so many bluff to make my call profitable. We need 39% equity and I can't find any bluff on his line. AQ probably cbet flop so he has few combos of AQ.
What would you do in this spot?
Loading 2 Comments...
He could have one AA combo one KK combo 4xAK combo 50% of 6xAQ and 3 QQ combos
So 5 combos you loose against 4 combos you draw against and 3 combos you win against makes
(05+30.5+3*1)/(5+3+3) = 4.5/11 ~ 40 best case if he indeed cBets most of his AQ on the flop.
So it would be a close call and as people normally underbluff so folding is ok.
This really all boils down to him having all combos of AQ vs only the one avail combo of AQs. (6 combos vs. 1 combo). A reg checking back AQ seems quite reasonable. He has the board destroyed with all of his value combos TBH. With all AQ you have like 43% plus all of the split equity. I probably just flip a coin here and call TBH.
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