z50 Turn decision
Posted by IMaufJute2
Posted by
IMaufJute2
posted in
Low Stakes
z50 Turn decision
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players)
BN: $144.22
SB: $50.00 (Hero)
BB: $47.19
UTG: $78.45
MP: $22.00
CO: $51.80
SB: $50.00 (Hero)
BB: $47.19
UTG: $78.45
MP: $22.00
CO: $51.80
Preflop
($0.75)
Hero is SB with
7
T
, , , ,
Flop
($10.50)
5
K
Q
,
Turn
($21.46)
5
K
Q
7
Felt lost on turn here. Some insights please.
Loading 7 Comments...
pre is spew. I would bet turn and then give up if you don't improve. Or check call turn is good too.
Isn't that a bit loose pre? Do you have a calling range pre? Are you 3-betting this 100%?
I think I like betting the turn.
Agree, pre is way too loose. Just fold. You have better hands to 3b with or call. AP I'd better smaller on the flop. You're essentially trying to give yourself a cheap price to see turn and river.
Given board isn't one we want to bet range I think size otf is fine. Betting smaller is hand specific and exploitable. As played though, yes pre is too loose but probably fine at a small frequency. I would play the turn as if we had JTdd/J9dd or something like that and barrel. Our sd value is garbage here and although our hand blocker wise is crap to induce folds, it still might be higher ev than cf. I think cc is likely bleeding as well.
How does your population handle flop cbets?
I see very low flop fold v cb as ip caller of 3b, and pretty high turn stab, which makes x/jamming weak equity very appealing. Wouldn't surprise me if a lot of populations fold to x/jam often enough to make air +ev as we need like 58-60% folds i think and I'm seeing as much 65+ folds in some games. Pretty texture/opponent dependant, but an option worth considering.
That is a really cool point I never even thought about! @_@ n1
Preflop seems a little bit light, but at some frequency whateevvvz.
My assumption of the zoom people and their preflop continuing range is something like this(they are generally are pretty damn tight, so they may defend even less) :
99-22,AQo,AQs-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,[50]AA,JJ,K9s,Q9s,65s-64s,54s[/50],[70]AJo,KQo,J9s,T8s,97s,86s,75s[/70],[35]TT,KJo,K8s,Q8s,J8s[/35]
Given these assumptions and my assumptions of his continues as shown in the picture, turn is an interesting decision.
I believe if we check the turn whether we call or fold depends on our pot odds and how often BU will start bluffing a hand like Axss, JTss, J9ss, T9ss, AJdx, or any dd combination he floated flop w/ Axdd, etc J8dd, 98dd, 54dd, 65dd(some people may float wider or do weird shit)
anyhoo if he is only betting AA, KQs-K8s, KQo,KJo, we still have nearly 30% equity.
When we say he is betting 33% of his gutters and flushdraws on the turn we have nearly 40% equity.
I'm not sure how much we accomplish with a turn bet. Also people at 50nl are much more passive and straight forward so I think we just are going to make more money by check/folding vs most sizings rather than betting or check calling. People are really straight forward at these stakes and aren't very likely to turn their ace highs into bluffs on turn etc. Opponent still has a lot of hands.
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