Well I would have shoved river. As played, you can hero fold if you are confident that population is not bluffing enough here. If you are not confident and you are readless then close your eyes and call.

Ok just ran a sim on gto+. I gave you a range of 99+ , AJs+ KQs and AQo+. And I gave villain a range of 22-QQ and suited broadways. So QQ is always betting river but JJ is always check calling. The problem is that villain is suppose to get to river with about 10 combos of broadways which shouldn't be in villains range given flop was multiway(his range is therefore less float heavy), also villain is suppose to value bet JJ once you check 80% of the time. If your confident villain is not floating flop and turn with broadways and is also not shoving JJ then you can fold.

Being so deep is possible that villain has some KK combos in his range. I ran the same sim but added 3 combos of KK to villain's range and took out most broadway floats on the flop( for floats villain is only calling AK with a backdoor flush draw now). Now QQ is betting turn only 56% of the time. After betting turn QQ is shoving river 79% of the time. The other 21% QQ is checking and always calling a shove.

yeah villain is suppose to always call flop and turn with all combos of suited AK and value shove JJ on the river. I very much doubt he is doing this so basically he arrives on the river with a very strong range which you can exploit by x folding.

With these kind of stats I'm assuming preflop he is calling with this sort of range:

I like the bet sizing, on the float, his range I believe is pretty inelastic baring some of the suited backdoors that might continue vs a smaller bet. I think with our range we want to bet some where between 40-60%.

Anyways once he calls flop I'm assuming he is going to fold a lot of stuff that isn't a good ace high or a pair. Some ace highs he is also going to fold if they don't have a backdoor flushdraw.

Turn I think we can go a little bit larger, we can still represent flushdraws, hands like A5s and A3s at some frequency. Certainly our suited broadway hearts and suited ace of hearts will bet here most of the time. It would be hard for Villian to be able to fold a pair on the turn, at least the player pool feels pretty stationy. It's pretty similar regardless and we have a pot sized bet with anyways so whatever.

On the river the hands he is going to show up with that can call are AA-22. probably around 20-24 combinations of 88-JJ, maybe 2 combos of AA-QQ, and then there are a couple of combinations of 22,44,66,77. Some of these smaller pocket pairs will fold preflop.

I didn't realize the stack depth pre so the preflop range I assumed is probably off by a bit but regardless pretty similar other than a higher frequency of a couple of suited hands calling and pocket pairs probably calling almost always.

Given the preflop ranges chaning a little bit, there are about 9-14 combos that beat us depending on what he folds preflop or 4bets. There are at least 20 combinations that can hero call us on the river.

If we end up constructing our ranges in a way that we some how end up checking this river, we are never folding. He still has a clear value bet with really most over pairs in my eyes. If I'm in his shoes I probably end up value betting TT and JJ. I mean maybe I don't in this pool since they are a bunch of nits, but it certainly is in the realm of possibility.

We should just shove river in my opinion, and if you check certain hands I would rather exploitatively x/f a hand like 99 on the river, where we are loosing to more combinations like TT and JJ that might value bet.

Then why would u think that a TAG villain valuebets TT and JJ?