z100, turning 88 into bluff

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z100, turning 88 into bluff

Blinds: $0.50/$1.00 (6 Players) BN: $229.96 (Hero)
SB: $101.75
BB: $104.58
UTG: $132.47
MP: $100.00
CO: $77.44
Villain is OK reg. 27/20/10. Cbet flop 61, cbet turn 62. WTSD 23
Preflop ($1.50) Hero is BN with 8 8
UTG folds, MP raises to $3.00, CO folds, Hero calls $3.00, 2 folds
Flop ($7.50) 4 7 Q
MP bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50
Turn ($16.50) 4 7 Q 6
MP bets $11.34, Hero raises to $29.00, MP calls $17.66
River ($74.50) 4 7 Q 6 3
MP checks, Hero bets $72.00, MP calls $63.50 and is all in
Final Pot BN lost and shows a pair of Eights.
MP wins and shows two pair, Sevens and Sixes.
MP wins $199.00
Rake is $2.50

Thinking I might let some comments in before I give my pov.

9 Comments

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elbabbelino 8 years, 7 months ago

I like it.

Bottom of SDV of continuing range plus outs to improve to a nutsy hand. Your other bluf candidate (55) got there on river, so also like shove there. Turn I prefer to raise 3 bucks more or so.

I think playing a mixed strategy with FD's, some sets, and some pair+SD proves quite efficient.

lion777 8 years, 7 months ago

Yup, agree with turn size possibly being slightly bigger. I do think there is some merits to a smaller sizing since if villain calls turn w/ Qx/KK/AA we are giving worse odds for him to call river we ship it. But yeah that's pretty insignificant.

greedisgood 8 years, 7 months ago

I don't know if I like it.. Aren't you 3betting 56s, A5s? the only set I can see you have are 77 or 66 because I assume you aren't flatting 44 on the button vs his open? If you are flatting 55 that would be your only hand that makes a straight..

lion777 8 years, 7 months ago

Yeah, 56s/A5s are def 3bet vs regs and 44 often a fold. With that said I do often see a part of the player population playing those hands in their calling range and tend to not assume that villain knows where I put those hands in my range.

Assuming our value range is either broad as 44-77/56s/A5s or narrower 55-77 I still feel this is a spot where our range is mostly value. People just don't bluff these spots enough I feel and I think is line almost always folds out Qx/KK/AA which is mostly what I'm targeting.

As played out I think we got a bit unlucky in this certain spot lol ;), Villain's exact hand(67) blocks our sets and this surely will be in the absolute bottom of his calling range.

But yeah you make a good point that or value range might be thinner than I first thought. =)

Samu Patronen 8 years, 7 months ago

I'm not sure about this. My main concern is that we could just call the turn OR just checkback the river since we have decent EV on both of those plays. I'm having a hard time imagining these aggressive lines being more profitable than those passive lines.

IMaufJute2 8 years, 7 months ago

If the turn bet would have been smaller i think its a call. But when its close to pot i think raise is absolutely fine. And also fire the river.

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