z100, good spot to OB bluff?

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

z100, good spot to OB bluff?

Blinds: $0.50/$1.00 (6 Players) BN: $259.11
SB: $72.64
BB: $100.00
UTG: $248.02
MP: $180.00 (Hero)
CO: $423.81
Preflop ($1.50) Hero is MP with 8 8
UTG raises to $2.50, Hero calls $2.50, 3 folds, BB raises to $10.50, UTG folds, Hero calls $8.00
Flop ($24.00) 7 9 K
BB bets $7.85, Hero calls $7.85
Turn ($39.70) 7 9 K A
BB checks, Hero checks
River ($39.70) 7 9 K A J
BB checks, Hero bets $50.00, BB calls $50.00

Villain is 25/19/7 with wtsd of 30, cbet 50 in 3bet pots, 700hands. Semidecent reg.
Prob sees hero as TAG reg.

PF seems pretty standard.
Flop his sizing is small plus we have backdoor straight possibilities so calling to reevaluate later on.

Turn is obv great for his range and when he checks i feel he's check calling most of the time.

When he checks river i feel his range should be heavily leaned to Ax and sometimes Kx. Him having 2pair+ here seems really unlikely since I'm checking back a big part of my range.

Seemed like a great spot go for the oversize since it's so hard for me to have air in this spot, QQ maybe to strong to turn into a bluff and 1010 being like to only likely bluff in this spot.

Meanwhile I can rep JJ pretty good or weirdly played 77/99. Even 10 8 got there though that hand obv being highly unlikely given pf.

The one thing is I would really preferred him having a smaller wtsd even though sample size is small so might be skewed.

Sizing to big/small?
Thoughts?

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