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[z10] plan to tripple barrel bluff but river showdownvalue?

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

[z10] plan to tripple barrel bluff but river showdownvalue?

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players) BN: $10.51
SB: $12.40 (Hero)
BB: $10.00
UTG: $10.00
MP: $8.95
CO: $12.65
Preflop ($0.15) Hero is SB with A K
3 folds, BN raises to $0.25, Hero raises to $0.98, BB folds, BN calls $0.73
Flop ($2.06) J 8 Q
Hero bets $1.00, BN calls $1.00
Turn ($4.06) J 8 Q 2
Hero bets $1.95, BN calls $1.95
River ($7.96) J 8 Q 2 K
Hero checks, BN bets $3.50, Hero folds
Final Pot BN wins $7.60
Rake is $0.36

Hi all,

villain is a unknown two-tabler.
flop should be standard and i plan on the turn to tripple barrel. my sizing should be a tad larger, maybe 2.30$. i block AK and KQ and unblock hearts. he should only have a little bit of JJ, and basically no QQ. so on the turn his nutscombos are only JJ (50%), 88, QJs, T9s and some QJo (25%) maybe.
but now we river showdownvalue and there is no point in betting. i decided to fold, because his size really screams "call me" and he has zero natural bluffs with also the AT gutshot getting there.
does anyone play the hand any different at any point?

2 Comments

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james 6 years, 8 months ago

Looks good except that I would size up on the turn to roughly 75% pot.

he has zero natural bluffs with also the AT gutshot getting there.

This is a really good thing for you to notice in game and will save you lots and lots of money especially at lower stakes.

Yoda-Priest-X-Napo 6 years, 8 months ago

I think this hand is fine with a little tweak, this board is hitting his range so damn well and you mainly gonna bet super strong hands but they will benefit hard from protection and then draws with huge equity that want to make the pot bigger for when they hit, and some other bluffs like this hand,So i think it needs more polarized sizings.And even overbets sometimes.

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