[z10] Nitfold vs x/r?
Posted by blaschenfier
Posted by
blaschenfier
posted in
Low Stakes
[z10] Nitfold vs x/r?
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players)
BN: $10.00
SB: $12.11
BB: $21.38
UTG: $4.32
MP: $11.87 (Hero)
CO: $8.23
SB: $12.11
BB: $21.38
UTG: $4.32
MP: $11.87 (Hero)
CO: $8.23
Preflop
($0.15)
Hero is MP with
A
Q
, , , , ,
Flop
($0.85)
A
2
9
, , ,
Turn
($1.85)
A
2
9
A
, , ,
villain is one tabling, but has decent stats on the first look, playing 19/16 on 32 hands. maybe he is mixing limits.
folding turn feels nitty, but he has like zero bluffs and does not do it with worse value hands. do you agree?
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Think I your population read is on point. Not the board/turn I'd expect a bluffraise. Villain might be overplaying his hand some small %, but think that's neglectable. Also we still have better hands in our range. Think I like the fold.
1 table-er, meaningless sample. I can't rule out overplays here, therefore I don't like the fold
I think he's prb doing it with most of his aces, plus fh and some air, if he's not a disguised reg.
Vs a know reg I could see the fold, vs unknown I prefer the call
I would never make an assumption that a 1 tabler has 0 bluffs in this spot. We can't know this and we are high up in our range
Don't think you can rule out Ax and bluffs like heart draws and just pure airballs if he's a possible rec so I'm calling turn and calling blank rivers. Wouldn't worry about making exploitable folds vs recreational players but when he can be doing this with a fair few worse hands, don't think we should be folding, especially blocking some boats.
I think that this is actually relatively close versus a player playing 19/16 and using a sizing that big. I'd probably call turn, not feeling great about it, and fold river unimproved barring it being a small bet. I just don't think that you're going to see a 19/16 type player take AJ and go crazy in this spot.
Wouldn't you expect a lot of ships otr?
I would expect to see some opponents raise the turn with Ax and then check a bunch of rivers. More importantly though, we shouldn't only be calling the turn if we're planning to call jams on the river. Sometimes our opponent will give up with a bluff, sometimes we'll improve to a full house, sometimes they'll bet a weird amount on the river etc.
Are you sure to place such high value on 32 hands sample in a zoom game ?
It's certainly possible that this player ends up being closer to a 25/21 player or something but it's very very unlikely that they'll end up being a 43/15 player over a bigger sample. So for now, I would stick with the read that they're likely to be a tighter, less creative regular type of player.
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