[z10] Nitfold vs x/r?

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[z10] Nitfold vs x/r?

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players) BN: $10.00
SB: $12.11
BB: $21.38
UTG: $4.32
MP: $11.87 (Hero)
CO: $8.23
Preflop ($0.15) Hero is MP with A Q
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.25, CO calls $0.25, BN folds, SB calls $0.20, BB folds
Flop ($0.85) A 2 9
SB checks, Hero bets $0.50, CO folds, SB calls $0.50
Turn ($1.85) A 2 9 A
SB checks, Hero bets $1.05, SB raises to $3.90, Hero folds

villain is one tabling, but has decent stats on the first look, playing 19/16 on 32 hands. maybe he is mixing limits.
folding turn feels nitty, but he has like zero bluffs and does not do it with worse value hands. do you agree?

10 Comments

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Freenachos 6 years, 11 months ago

Think I your population read is on point. Not the board/turn I'd expect a bluffraise. Villain might be overplaying his hand some small %, but think that's neglectable. Also we still have better hands in our range. Think I like the fold.

Eriol 6 years, 11 months ago

I think he's prb doing it with most of his aces, plus fh and some air, if he's not a disguised reg.

Vs a know reg I could see the fold, vs unknown I prefer the call

klamsauce 6 years, 11 months ago

I would never make an assumption that a 1 tabler has 0 bluffs in this spot. We can't know this and we are high up in our range

frontdoorbackdoor 6 years, 11 months ago

Don't think you can rule out Ax and bluffs like heart draws and just pure airballs if he's a possible rec so I'm calling turn and calling blank rivers. Wouldn't worry about making exploitable folds vs recreational players but when he can be doing this with a fair few worse hands, don't think we should be folding, especially blocking some boats.

James Hudson 6 years, 11 months ago

I think that this is actually relatively close versus a player playing 19/16 and using a sizing that big. I'd probably call turn, not feeling great about it, and fold river unimproved barring it being a small bet. I just don't think that you're going to see a 19/16 type player take AJ and go crazy in this spot.

James Hudson 6 years, 11 months ago

Wouldn't you expect a lot of ships otr?

I would expect to see some opponents raise the turn with Ax and then check a bunch of rivers. More importantly though, we shouldn't only be calling the turn if we're planning to call jams on the river. Sometimes our opponent will give up with a bluff, sometimes we'll improve to a full house, sometimes they'll bet a weird amount on the river etc.

James Hudson 6 years, 11 months ago

Are you sure to place such high value on 32 hands sample in a zoom game ?

It's certainly possible that this player ends up being closer to a 25/21 player or something but it's very very unlikely that they'll end up being a 43/15 player over a bigger sample. So for now, I would stick with the read that they're likely to be a tighter, less creative regular type of player.

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