When to edgepass and when to get max chip ev
Posted by ASAP1Z2
Posted by
ASAP1Z2
posted in
High Stakes
When to edgepass and when to get max chip ev
Maybe the wrong foruim,but i think in this forum more very good theorist look, so i post it here .
and its kinda a cashgame probem, cause there is no icm, only a small change, theres some future ev.
cause when we lose our chips, the tournament is over and we cant rebuy like in cashgames. so somtimes
we cant play the max ev line, cause we just fold to wait for a better spot.
im not sure whats the right thinking approach
we play a 250$flash spin,15bb starting stack, 3max,1min blindlevel
when we are headsup vs the fish, wehave maybe 5-10 hands till the
blinds are so high that our edge is gone. so we should choose our action whisely
my question is related to limping trash like 72o,32o
when the fish iso is for example low ,maybe 30% at8bb(gto iso is >55%)
and also his foldvscbet is 70%) this hands for sure are +ev to limp stab
now where im not sure
is it better to foldthese hands, like an edgepass fold, sure we print some
ev by limp stabbing, but its so small and we have ony 10hands so maybe to
try to get max chips,we should fold and try to find a better spot cause we dont have much timeeven when we only have 10 hands, we should limp stab, cause its +ev
and we should play these 10 hands wehave in best way
im just not sure which is the right approach. cause both make kinda sense
Loading 3 Comments...
Basically, with a "timeframe" of 10 hands you have to take advantage of ANY single EV spot you can get your hands on. Variance is high, but that's the character of this special format, so nothing to discuss here.
Only doubt I have is your setup. His fold2cbet should be 70%. That likely is not identical to folds vs. stabs, which actually might be lower. Second point is your break-even point. To make the strategy +EV your stab must not exceed 1/3 pot size. With 1/2 pot being the minbet, strategy gets -EV:
EV (limp-stab) = (0.7 x (0.7 x 1.5 + 0.3 x -1.5)) + (0.3 x -1.5) = -0.03
but when we limp 72o, the fish can iso,so he thinks, on the flop he can donk, so hethinks.
so every hand takes time. how can u be sure a limp stab with 72o is worth invest the time?
to your second point
this shallow therenominraise pots, so pot is usually limppot, so we cant bet 1/3, my std size is min, so 50%pot. if we bet 50%, we must win 33% or more. so if he folds 67% or more we have autoprofit, so my 70% fold2cbet is right? or doihave a thinking error?
cheers
Look at my formula, it contains a 50% psb on the flop. You might have a marginal autoprofit spot on the flop, but to get there you invested 0.5bb preflop. To decide about preflop you cannot just look at your flop EV.
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