When should I stop playing an imbalanced strategy
Posted by decakun
Posted by
decakun
posted in
Low Stakes
When should I stop playing an imbalanced strategy
Hello, I hope this is the right place to ask. I am the lowest stakes player. Let's say I have a population read that people heavily overfold to flop check-raises. Hence, I decide to play an extremely exploitative strategy of check-raising any air that I have. My question is, at which point are people going to become aware of it? The player pool is so huge that even though I try to take a note on the player whenever I see a questionable play, it feels I would need to play a crazy number of hands to actually discover imbalances in people's strategy. After 125k hands played there is only one opponent against which I have more than 1k hands played - and I don't feel I can tell anything in particular about him other than he doesn't play very well in general, without being able to point any specific leaks. At what stakes/how many hands against me played would people discover that I'm playing extremely imbalanced?
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I'm unsure whether there is a concrete answer to your question. Some players will adjust based on one individual hand they see from you even at micro stakes. If I see someone making a play that is obviously out of line (e.g. too loose or not having raised a nutted hand in a suitable spot), I make a note and adjust from the next hand on. Other players will only adjust after a considerable sample size. Some players will never adjust.
when it stops printing money
This ^
There's a video out there somewhere with the phrase in it "don't kill the chicken (while it's still laying eggs)" or for non-native speakers, you don't want to necessarily take maximum immediate profits when you can make more money over the long term with patience. In terms of what you're talking about here with a x/r that prints money something to consider might be going into solvers and finding every single hand that the solver will x/r even a little bit then x/r those hands at higher frequencies than GTO, maybe even pure. The advantage of this strategy is that no one showdown is going to give the game away, someone will have to be very observant over a large number of hands to see that you're out of line. If you just x/r random crap then yes that may make money in this hand right now but there's a high chance that people either immediately or fairly quickly take a note and just stop folding to you. It also means that your entire strategy would be based on some pretty easy to counter stuff.
Personally the way I play is to try and understand every single mistake that it is possible for someone to make, then I work out reasonable counter strategies to each mistake and employ them when I see one. Often though the counter strategy will be something crude like you describe such as this player overfolds to double barrel so let's bet everything as a bluff but in game I will instead look to find every hand that has some non-0 barrelling freq and start going with those hands more often than a solver would so that my opponent is going to continue to make this mistake. I play in a fairly small pool of players so this may be more applicable to my games than yours but just something to keep in mind.
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