What's your play with bottom set?
Posted by DontRunItOnce
Posted by
DontRunItOnce
posted in
Low Stakes
What's your play with bottom set?
Blinds: $0.02/$0.05 (5 Players)
BN: $9.49 (Hero)
SB: $5.30
BB: $5.05
UTG: $5.00
CO: $6.36
SB: $5.30
BB: $5.05
UTG: $5.00
CO: $6.36
Preflop
($0.07)
Hero is BN with
7
7
, , , ,
Flop
($0.50)
T
9
7
, , , , ,
Turn
($2.22)
T
9
7
5
,
Final Pot
SB wins $2.13
Rake is $0.09
Rake is $0.09
This guy is playing 27/22/15.4 over 51 hands with only a 8% cold calling. UTG was a tight player opening so combined this with the tight cold calling range of SB he will have PP the majority of the time (would I be right in thinking that?). I think that he would X/C on the flop with two overs with nut flush draw when there's one other player in the pot, apart from the time he has QsJs. So then this weights his sets and two pairs more?. I would never consider folding 99 in this spot, but when I have 77 it's certainly a consideration given the specific situation and player. Or I'm I being a nit bitch?
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Flop lead is good, better than x/raising on this board. He can still have a lot of 2pair combos and flushdraws in his value range when betting turn.
You are a nit bitch.
Raise allin turn.
Uh no...
On the turn we need to ship 4.3 into an eventual pot of 10.8. That means we need ~40% vs his range if he is always calling. If he is folding 5% vs our shove we only need ~38%.
If his range is: [TT-99,T9s,AsQs,KsQs,AsJs,KsJs,QsJs,Jd8d,Js8s] we have 41.2% on the turn. This is a really tight version of his range to demonstrate that we should not be folding.
Thanks for the reply
just all in .
SB probably doesn't have J8d in his range, might 3bet 99/TT and you don't block any bluffs or thin value hands, so I would not fold.
Call turn and reevaluate the river.
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