What would you do? nl10 river decision
Posted by rhytmuss
Posted by
rhytmuss
posted in
Low Stakes
What would you do? nl10 river decision
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players)
BB: $10.15
UTG: $10.70
MP: $26.39
CO: $10.45
BN: $14.71 (Hero)
SB: $11.48
UTG: $10.70
MP: $26.39
CO: $10.45
BN: $14.71 (Hero)
SB: $11.48
Preflop
($0.15)
Hero is BN with
K
T
, , , , , ,
Flop
($2.75)
K
6
T
,
Turn
($4.95)
K
6
T
Q
, ,
River
($10.95)
K
6
T
Q
A
,
Villain is new player at the table and i had no further info about him.
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How can you call this? He can bet any J, many sets, and KQ or AK for thin value. Do you hope he shas random bd clubs or QT here to call? I make a small raise OTF and hope he shoves. OTT, you should still shove when you put him on AA or AK instead of leaving less than 1/2 behind OTR:
Do you think he's going to shove as a bluff very often OTF though? I think his shoving range is likely to just be AA, KK, TT, 66 and maybe AK, so we're likely behind to his range. Do you not think it's better just call and let him barrel off with AK or continue bluffing on brick turn/rivers? It's probably close but I think calling is probably slightly more +EV here
No. But he doesnt keep randomly barreling.
He could still barrel AK, AA, AQ, AJ, any backdoor flush draw he picks up on the turn though I think?
The problem for op is not calling flop and turn bc he doesnt want a raising range blablabal, but not be able to fold a hand like he is married to it. In order to be good 25% of the time on the river, villain must spew jam extremly wide.
I think we can probably get away from this spot on the river.
When you flat call twice preflop your range is pretty capped v villain's, and the flop hits your range nicely, which I think makes villain less likely to bluff with a small pocket pair or suited connectors. When he bets on the flop he has a lot of AK/AQ/AJ/KQ in his range, maybe some AT too, as well as TT+. Having said that, your hand is still ahead of his range on the flop and seeing as you're IP I quite like the call here.
The turn is going to hit his range quite well, obviously AJ got there, KQ and QQ are now ahead of you, if he decided to cbet with something like 78s (obviously only a small amount of his range) then he's going to barrel this river again. We're still ahead of AA/AK/AQ though so I think calling turn again is fine and can consider calling again on brick river depending on his sizing, would definitely be checking behind on a brick river if he checks to us however.
When we get the to the river, I just don't think he has enough bluffs for us to call, despite the fact we only need to be right roughly 25% of the time. If he has spades connectors he would probably just give up here given how many Jx we have in our range that we're just never folding, and there isn't anything else he really has in his range as a bluff, without some read on him as some fish that's just gone nuts with 99. His range here is most TT+, of which we lose to every hand, AJ+, of which again we lose to every hand, we're behind to KQ if he has decided to thin value bet that. The only things that are potentially in his raise that we're ahead of are A9s, 87s and T9s, which is a very small part of his range and he is probably not three barrelling those hands with a very high frequency either. You can work out the combos pretty easily but I'm very confident that we don't have 25% equity here on the river so I think we should fold.
I missed that he probably has some A5s in his range, he could potentially play As5s this way which we're ahead of on the river, but obviously that's only one extra combo for our river EV calculation.
On river everything is clear.
But what about call BUvsCO and calling sqz is it standard play? Maybe 3bet Vs CO is better? What do you think guys? What is your general calling range Vs standard CO?
I think it's probably correct to call here v CO. I put in what I think is a fairly standard CO opening range and KTs has about 45% equity, so we're getting a good price to call especially given that we're in position. In general the hands I choose to 3bet here are usually either a little better or a little worse, when 3bet "bluffing" I prefer hands with slightly less equity that still play well postflop like T9s or maybe weaker Kxs hands. I think we should probably have a BTN calling range v CO when we have no reads against villain, and KTs seems like a pretty ideal candidate to be in that range.
Calling pre is standard, unless blinds are squeezing too much, in which case I prefer 3-betting. Folding river is also standard.
dynamic run outs like so weaken the relative strength of your two pair considerably. 4 Strs and 4 flush boards are always great boards to make big folds.
Any specific reason to call pre this? sb/bb seems regs so there aren't fishes inside to support the ccall much... I'm 3bet/folding most of my range vs co/sb/bb regs.
U played it fine on flop/ turn( prop little bigger like 4$ on turn better) ... Easy fold on river.
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