What to do on the river??
Posted by tbeckett
Posted by
tbeckett
posted in
Low Stakes
What to do on the river??
I was watching some heads up on youtube and saw a hand that interested me. Effective stack was 200bb
SB opens K10hh on the button 3x
BB 3bets 4x to 12bb
SB calls
Flop : Qc 3d Js
BB bets big. SB calls again.
Turn: 2d
BB bets big. SB calls
River: 7s
BB checks
Final board is: Qc 3d Js 2d 7s
What is the correct play with K10 here?? Do you have to bluff jam river?? I mean if you check your gonna lose to loads of Ax, but what can you represent on the river??
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I'm far from a HU expert but here are my thoughts:
I don't think KT is a mandatory bluff though it seems like a reasonable one. We do have a touch of sd value but not much (some missed K9/T9/low fd).
How many bluffs we have depends a lot on flop sizing - you said BB bets big on flop so I'm going to assume something like b66 where I don't think we'll float much 5c4c type stuff which we might have vs small. But we still have KT/T9/K9 with at least some of the offsuit combos.
As for value, KQ seems like an easy value bet, maybe a few weaker TP hands, and it's easy to forget but we should still have Q7s/J7s and some hands like Q3s/Q2s that played call/call.
My guess would be reasonable bluff but not mandatory.
Looking at GTOw it agrees with me mostly. Assuming b75 on flop and turn, KT bluffs sometimes but only without a diamond. It has something like 12% equity so really quite reasonable SDV. Worst value jam is QT and we have some rivered 2p and a fair bit of slowplayed QJ as well. Any hand worse than KT looks to be a mandatory bluff.
The bet on flop and turn was definitely 75%+ pot. But nefver an overbet
Do you think we will have q7s/j7s/q3/q2s types of hands?? That's interesting.
I guess if we have all those hands for value. K10 without diamond will have to become a bluff because the only other hand we reach the river with is 910. There aren't really any other bluffs??
Q7s/J7s get here 100% of the time, what street would you fold or raise them? Q3s and Q2s are a bit sketchier but you have to defend very wide pre hu (I believe they mix a bit of 4b and call pre though that will depend on stacks/sizings.) Our bluffs are T9 and some hands like T8dd, K9dd, 98dd and then sometimes with our KT no diamond. KT has better blockers than a hand like 9d8d but remember it's also is worth more as a check.
Sorry Steve I wasn't very clear. What I meant to say was do the q7s/j7s/q3/q2s types of hands call the 3bet. I didn't know HU 3bet defending got that wide.
Are you calling every Jx on the turn??
Instinctively I feel like I'd rather bluff with the hands with no diamonds. But it seems GTO prefers bluffing hands with less showdown value even if they have a diamond.
Ah yes Q7/J7s are 100% defends here. Q3s/Q2s are a bit sizing dependent - GTOw says that at 100bb and 3b to 10 they never fold but 200bb deep vs 3b to 11 (from 2.5) they do fold some.
As for Jx on the turn, vs big flop/big turn you start to fold some, but you want to choose the ones that unblock his bluffs so a hand like J7 is better than a hand like JT/J9.
Bluffing is funny sometimes. KT no diamond is a "better" bluff than Td8d in that its EV as a jam is higher. But it's also a much better check. We care about the difference in EV between the options with each hand and according to these sims KT has EV(bet) = EV(check) but the bad diamonds have EV(bet) > EV(check) so they always bluff.
One final thing. What makes the solver not want to call those hands when we get deeper?? For some reason I thought the deeper the stacks the wider range you can play more hands
Your comments have been really helpful. You have explained it perfectly for me. Thanks for taking the time really appreciate it.
Glad I could help! I can't really explain preflop beyond we're getting a worse price and OOP is 3betting a slightly tighter/stronger range. With preflop I go by the 'trust that the solver outputs are reasonable' and don't think too much harder about it (beyond adjusting a bit vs opponents I know are wider/tighter than solver)
If I could get any kind of sense of weakness from the opponent I could maybe try some kind of bluff. Otherwise I would just probably check to not to lose any more money
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