This is a good approach you are taking, filtering lines and finding out what is going on is much better than blindly pouring over hand histories.

In general, simply re-organizing your range can turn things around.

River probing is Massively profitable and you have to find out a way to combat it.

Some general ideas would be:

1) Figure out where you can barrel turns more. You will start to win pots on the turn uncontested with the bottom portion of your range (the hands that often get checked on the turn). Also, continue to barrel most of your value.

2) If you do check to exploit the probe line, make sure you are protecting your check range giving yourself better hands to call rivers with.

3) If you determine that they are weighted towards value more, you can simply one and done.

4) If you determine that they have bluffs or weaker value, you can start raising rivers. Yes you are going to get caught sometimes but don't be discouraged.

5) Study how the ranges interact with each other and pay very close attention to texture. Are they probing rivers where draws don't close? What does it mean when they probe on a draw closing river? Etc.

Folding is going to be something like -400bb/100 (assuming 2.5x open, cbet 1.5bb.) So anything >-400bb/100 means you're doing better than folding. But honestly I don't think that kind of analysis is useful at all here. I have no idea what kind of winrate you should expect and it's not so clear what it means if your winrate is good/bad. It could have to that you call some bad bluffcatchers, fold some good ones, bet too many/few value hands on the turn, check too many/too few weak hands on the turn, etc.

Just drill the spot in GTOw or other program and see where your intuition is off about what hands want to call. One thing I've found is that this is generally not very difficult - the more difficult part is getting to the river with a reasonable range. So once you feel comfortable with the river mechanic, spend more time getting good at turn barrelling ranges.

Using the winrate alone won't tell you the full story since it might be a case of false-positive/negative. Look at the hands your opponents are betting and what your river calling range is in these spots. Cbet check call means you have a medium strength hand and if your opponents are not trying to make those hands indifferent by bluffing then you are overcalling vs value and hence the -winrate. If that is the case you are much better double barreling thinner for value with medium hands on turns and checking back rivers. If your opponents have unbalanced river bet ranges, you can just exploit using the other line previously mentioned rather than being compelled to fully balance a closer to gto river calling range with stronger hands. It's up to your playstyle whether you want to play defense in these spots with GTO or go aggressive with counter-exploits in other areas.

ten25 What is your winrate, in aggregate, when you c bet turns?

your turn cbet winrate looks high, check your flop cbet and river cbet for comparison - if everything is high then your just betting too strong value

or it could your not cbetting flops enough and saving all that power for turn cbet

if that is the case, redistribute your range by cbetting more frequently with weaker hands on flop and rivers, and start checking some strong hands so you can defend your river check calls

goal here is to convert that 650bb turn winrate and turning 150 of it to your river check call so that at least your breaking even or winning there

Different approaches for different people but I would not tweak my play to try to hit certain winrates in specific lines, I would just spend some time studying the line you think you're not playing well.

ten25 I have some data for you from 10,000,000 hand sample. The details of the filter are as follows:

-NOT (Player is Hero, this removes my/our stats from the filter)
-Max RFI is 2bet
-There Was a RFI by the pool hero
-Flop seen Heads Up
-C bet Flop
-Checked Turn
-Hero is IP

Pools winrate in this line (X back turn after flop cbet). Action stops there.

Pool winrate in this line is -143.50bb/100 or almost 1.5bb lost every time you get here. Your winrate is slightly better than pool.

Pool winrate in the c bet flop and barrel turn is 224.90bb/100 or winning quite well when barreling. Can certainly be better. Your winrate was 500bb+/100 if I remember correctly.

So, if we adjust the above filter and remove "checked turn" and then give pool hero the opportunity to c bet (remember, we did not execute the c bet), what would you guess the pools winrate to be when they are faced with the decision to either miss the barrel and check back or to simply bet (barrel)????

Here is the sample size:

51,668 hands and the turn c bet was executed 52.44% of the time by IP player.

Thanks for the responses everyone, mostly I am on a bad run so far this month and made some questionable calls on the River and just kinda feeling exploited on this line ... so I was looking in to it. After looking at it I really think what I'm doing is ok, given that the pool I'm in is full of nonfolders, but there are definitely some spots mixed in to this line where I should have folded.

Month is turning around. Hope I didn't just jinx it. May move back up to 100NL if I can keep things going back in this direction ...

... and yearly so far