what hand range villian here fold river?

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what hand range villian here fold river?

HJ: 98
CO: 83.69
BN: 204 (Hero)
SB: 200
BB: 209.90
Preflop (3) (5 Players)
Hero was dealt 5 5
HJ folds, CO raises to 6, Hero calls 6, SB folds, BB calls 4
Flop (19) 5 9 7 (3 Players)
BB checks, CO bets 8, Hero calls 8, BB raises to 26, CO folds, Hero calls 18
Turn (79) 5 9 7 Q (2 Players)
BB bets 46, Hero calls 46
River (171) 5 9 7 Q 6 (2 Players)
BB bets 131.90, and is all in, Hero folds
Final Pot
BB wins 168

villian 3 bets 4% from 300 hands, flop c/r small sample 29% out of 7 oppertunitys, what are your guys thoughts

18 Comments

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Chael Sonnen 10 years, 11 months ago

Calling pre-flop is a mistake. He made it 3x, and there's only has 40BB to get. Even against a 100BB stack, I wouldn't be thrilled at all.

The important stat here is his fold to steal. Does he defend every 86 combo, for instance?
Flatting flop is good. By backraising, you're always getting it in behind. If there were a FD on the board (giving him a ton of combo draws), I'd be more inclined to go with it right away.

River is close. How good is he? Does he jam a set for value (he should). Is he capable of check-raising JT on the flop (which is a good play).

I guess it's a fold, because most 200NL players underbluff this runout, and he should be jamming any set. You beat JT and some overcard+ BDFD hands.



UpUpAndAway 10 years, 11 months ago
Good catch, I didn't notice that the opener was shortstacked in this hand and agree that preflop turns into a fold in this case. 90bb+ and a call is fine, though.



1followu 10 years, 11 months ago
why is raising JT here on flop against 2 players a good play chael?
both ranges would seem (too) strong to me if i would be to act here.



Chael Sonnen 10 years, 11 months ago

CO/BTNs range are indeed fairly strong, but they have plenty of hands they'd fold to a c/r. BB c/r'ing looks even stronger now.
OOP folding a set here shows you why you should c/r a hand like that: So you can be bluffing on these runouts, and get paid off when you do have a value hand.
JTs is a great hand to do it with, because it blocks JJ/TT for CO, it has a gutshot to the nuts, somewhat clean overcards, and a backdoor flush draw.

1followu 10 years, 11 months ago
"So you can be bluffing on these runouts, and get paid off when you do have a value hand."

or if i do it it will be turned around always^^
randa 10 years, 11 months ago

I agree raising j10 good my range is uncapped but could have also a lot of shit in it, the fish co could just be c betting with trash as it's only a small c bet. Not enough reads on villain here so realy don't know if he's capable of jamming a set for value or going three streets with a missed semi bluff, he semt abit of bit pre flop

ohgodwhy 10 years, 11 months ago

Why is flatting to the CO cbet better than raising? To me it looks like I don't want to have a large flatting range at all on this board since the BB will get a very good price with a lot of hands or he can squeeze a lot and put us into very tough spots if we flatted lets say A9.

Also don't we want to stack CO's overpairs before the turn kills our action?

1followu 10 years, 11 months ago
op wrote co cbettor is a fish so it seems like a very clear flopraise to me. but ye against a regular it seems like a call given that he can have many combos that beat us. chael said he would call his whole range here on flop which seems weird. i mean with 99 or sth i just want value before it gets ugly or with a straight.



Chael Sonnen 10 years, 11 months ago

In my opinion, you shouldn't have much of a raising range on this board, actually.
Of course 55 is ahead of both ranges, but you can never get it in good. Maybe a loose player gets in 97, but you'll mostly be crushes against a straight, or a bigger set.
And versus his stack size, you can pretty much never bluff any backdoors yourself. Would rather keep my range wide and protected. It's not like BB will peel random gutshots. Even if he does, they have three outs to see a turn. That's not a disaster.

randa 10 years, 11 months ago

i dont like raising because it could fold the regs top pairs out, and calling gives the reg a chance to try squeeze with a bluff or semi bluff....


Tyler Forrester 10 years, 11 months ago

If his c/r is actually 3/8 (the checkraise you faced in the hand was not included), then you should look to stack on the turn. 

I think given his low 3-bet % you see an overpair here enough to get in on either the flop or turn. I'd call the river also I think (this is marginal) his range should be very erratic given his fishiness. 

If we are playing a regular, I think this line looks okay and probably isn't terribly exploitable. You'd have to call 77 on this river. 

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