Weird spot vs river overbet.
Posted by zorgar
Posted by
zorgar
posted in
Low Stakes
Weird spot vs river overbet.
SB: De4aultt: $26.81
BB: abuserkid: $27.98 (Hero)
UTG: AndersonKal: $15.67
MP: venacious: $38.07
CO: skrivbord: $59.52
I know quite a bit about this villain. He seems like an "ok" regular with 21/16/5 Stats and 53% cbet oop, 6% checkraise and 54% Check fold.
If hes checking underpairs i am not worried to get him off of them when i bet later streets and i dont want to be checkraise with this hand at all because it has such a high nut potential. Turn i think pretty much all options are viable. OTR im wondering if raising for value is ever a good idea here? I just dont believe he ever has a flush here when i block the As. I have probably never seen anybody check a flushdraw or a flushdraw with bottom pair. His betsizing obviously suggest that hes very very polarized and im blocking the value part of his range, so there is probably nothing he could call me with anyways.
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Raising river doesn't seem solid here. By the flop check it seems very unlikely we or him ever has a flush by the river as he cbets the flushdraw more often than not. And we semibluff with it on the flop as a semibluff vs his checking range as well.
His turn bet could be Qx and some slowplayed stronger hands. But why would he suddenly bet here with a flushdraw and not the flop?
River has to be a call. We block flush combo's and are at the top of our range as well. Pure theory wise we need to defend 37.50% of our river range. Given we have few actual flushes we should call with the next best hand.
Agree 100% w/ Citanul
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