Weird River spot - What is villain's range?
Posted by Danshiel350
Posted by
Danshiel350
posted in
Low Stakes
Weird River spot - What is villain's range?
BN: $60.45
SB: $87.45
BB: $109.55
UTG: $68.90 (Hero)
HJ: $72.50
CO: $36.60
SB: $87.45
BB: $109.55
UTG: $68.90 (Hero)
HJ: $72.50
CO: $36.60
Button is 27/21 and CO flat is from a fish so his range includes Mid PP's and various connectors I assume.
Preflop
($0.75)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
A
9
Hero raises to $1.50, HJ folds, CO calls $1.50, BN calls $1.50, SB folds, BB folds
Hero raises to $1.50, HJ folds, CO calls $1.50, BN calls $1.50, SB folds, BB folds
Flop
($5.25)
6
5
9
(3 Players)
Hero checks,
CO checks,
BN bets $3.90,
Hero raises to $12,
CO folds,
BN calls $8.10
Turn
($29.25)
6
5
9
T
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BN checks
River
($29.25)
6
5
9
T
T
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BN bets $21.90
Should I fire here? Or turn? Didn't really feel like a good spot....
When villain makes this bet, I really couldn't put any reasonable combos in his range? It seems to me that sets would have bet turn when I show weakness, though perhaps not bottom set?
I think his value combos are very small here, but at the same time so are his bluffs.
Call or fold?
Loading 3 Comments...
I like a cbet much more than a x/r. You loose a lot of value vs the fish and the BU is probably not bluffing enough to justify a check. I do not like a x/r range at all on this flop, since you want to bet all your straights/sets/twoPair/OPs, would be interested in your thoughts about the flopplay.
Given that I would not get in this turnspot ever. I think we can discount some straights/sets, when he is not reraising/pushing on the flop. He can have
FDs: KcQc,KcJc,QcJc,KcTc,QcTc,JcTc
TPs: A9s,J9s,T9s,98s
TwoPair: 65s
Therefore the Td is pretty good for his range given that 50% of his FD made a TP and T9/98 improved:
Having said that I do check this turn. On the river he should bet all his busted draws and Tx (which did not bet the turn) and probably A9s. Without more informations about Villain you can probably go with both plays. Some guys do bet always w KcTc/QcTc/JcTc on the turn and some never, some are always checking KcQc,KcJc,QcJc on the turn, some are betting them...Imo the key factor for the river decision is, what you think he is doing with XcTc and his FD on the turn.
Your analysis seems pretty solid so far.
About the flop play... whilst villain was a fish he was a 31/19 and so more on the aggro side.
I thought there was a reasonable chance that the person I'd be up against on the turn was this fish. Free cards aren't a huge issue given the amount of outs i have.
I can't be 100% sure, but i think this is how I'd play my sets.
Feel free to comment on this thought process though, I'm happy to be convinced it is bad.
Ok, I do think, that a x/r vs the fish is good, when you have some evidence that he is more like a maniac and likes to bluff/valuebet light. As you said freecards are not a problem, and if you want to x/r a hand here I think Ac9c is the best.
I would never x/r any sets/straights/twoP here without being very confident, that the CO/BU is betting if checked to.
But as played you do not x/r the fish! The fish is very likely folding if you x/r the BU here.
I am not shure if I like the call more than the raise, but it gets very taff, if the BU is pushing to your x/r. Vs a range of sets+ you just have 32.5% equity and Villain is probably not stacking of lighter then that.
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