Weird flop spot with 99 CO v BTN

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Weird flop spot with 99 CO v BTN

Blinds: $0.02/$0.05 (6 Players) BN: $4.91
SB: $2.16
BB: $4.44
UTG: $6.88
MP: $7.07
CO: $6.42 (Hero)
Preflop ($0.07) Hero is CO with 9 9
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.12, BN calls $0.12, 2 folds
Flop ($0.31) 3 3 2
Hero bets $0.16, BN raises to $0.47, Hero folds

Villain is 24/15 over 45 hands. I decided to fold without reads but I think if I always fold here I am probably overfolding. Are you usually peeling at least one here?

4 Comments

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Tawan6 8 years, 8 months ago

Villain has A2 and 44-88 a lot more than TT+ in this spot at this limit. No point raising because you fold out bluff or get stacked by weirdly played TT+. Call and reevaluate OTT.

elbabbelino 8 years, 8 months ago

From a theoretical standpoint you would be opening Yourself up to (hyper) exploitation were you to fold hands like 99 to this raise. It would mean that your opponent (if he were to be aware of your strategy) could profitably raise your cbet on this flop with any two cards.

Without (strong) reads this means that you cannot fold in practice. Poker is definitely not to be played merely by considering theory though. In general at the lower stakes people tend to underbluf, making it more acceptable to (slightly) overfold in those situations.

Yet, 99 is ahead of a good amount of the hands villain (in his eyes) will raise for value, as other people in this topic already mentioned. So you really should not fold. Were you to have 44 or AJhh (hands that theoretically likely ought to be defended vs a raise to avoid being exploitable), you could find valid reasons to fold, since now your no longer ahead of (about any) "valueraise". This, combined with an (estimated) low bluf frequency could justify folding.

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