Villain fires 3rd big barrel OTR, I've got top 2.
Posted by Hoothoot
Posted by
Hoothoot
posted in
Low Stakes
Villain fires 3rd big barrel OTR, I've got top 2.
SB: $25.01
BB: $66.98
UTG: $35.09
HJ: $50.84
CO: $10.74
UTG folds, HJ raises to $0.75, CO folds, Hero calls $0.75, SB calls $0.65, BB folds
No stats, no reads. I prefer to flat AJo pre in this spot because I think a 3bet is a little too thin vs a HJ/MP open. Flop flat is standard imo, raising wouldn't be terrible but it could be overplaying what's still just 1 pair. I improve to top 2 on the turn, and villain barrels again. I though about raising, but I feel like against any decent opponent I'm gonna iso myself against sets and KQ and he could very well fold AK and AQ that don't have a FD. Villain barrels big on the river, and I'm left wondering what I beat. I don't see villain betting so large with AK and AQ because he simply can't get called by enough for that large of a bet. It seems to me his most likely hands in this spot are KQ, TT, 77. Very occasionally he could have AT, but not enough compared to those other hands for me to justify a call imo.
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Call river and the hand is standard/well played on all streets.
Care to explain why I should call river? Do you really expect villain to be value betting AK/AQ/AT here often enough to justify a call? I don't, personally. I mean, what is he trying to get value from with those hands and with such a large bet sizing?
pretty much what Raoul said is why.
pretty sure that villain will vbet any 2pair here. That is a lot of combos here in a single raised pot....And there is still a decent stuff that missed and ppl tend to go for 3 barrels when tha A turns.
+we´re pretty much at the top of our range. What hands do you call here? sets and straights only? that would be pretty exploitable
I don't know why you think villain would vbet any 2pair here. He hasn't got J7 or T7 in his HJ/MP opening range. The two pairs he's got are JT, AJ, and very seldom, A4s (but that's gonna x/f flop a large % of the time anyway). For barrelling 80% pot OOP on the river on this board his range is very strong. The bottom of his value range is JT and AT, both of which we block with our hand.
Wait, what? He only has 1 combo of JTs if he opens them all, and 2 combos of ATs. If he opens all ATo then he has 6 I guess. 89s is also a straight OTF and will bet 3 streets if he opens it pre. He potentially has 20 combos of straights and 8 combos of sets including AA. I don't give an unknown credit for bluffing much on this river given the runout. His value range seems like it could have about 28 combos that beat us and 7 that we beat, which is not good enough for a call if he's not bluffing much. Seems like a good spot to make an exploitative fold, although I might miss some of the clues and call in game.
OTT, of his flop betting range, the ace hit some of his bluffs (although I'd think that his Ax bluff cbetting frequency would maybe be pretty low on this board), completed 16 combos of draws, and relegated most of the other parts of his range to SDV type hands. It's really hard for him to be balanced here IMO.
edit: fixed a combinatorics error^given your count for value betting he only needs to bluff 5 combos on the river to break even here.
@m_zeal, you think he has 5 (and always bets JTs, AT to this size)?
Probably, also I would rather risk a slightly negative ev call if folding means we only defend 10-20% of our range on the river.
What kind of hands would you expect him to have in his bluffing range? I like this discussion...
k9ss, k8ss, 7xss, q9s and then maybe some random strt blockers like 88,99, 78.
You are right, thats a bit loose. I thought it was 5 handed. This makes things much closer and I think to be good here villain needs to v bet some ak here and turn 10x into a bluff.
@ m_zeal: you wrote: "I would rather risk a slightly negative ev call if folding means we only defend 10-20% of our range on the river. "
1. why?
2. Where are you getting this "10-20%" number?
3. AQ and AK are both slightly better calls here than AJ, so if you're gonna start bluff-catching I dunno if you have to go much worse than AQ.
yeah, I really doubt villain bets JT, and even AJ would be thin, since we still have a bunch of sets and straights, and AJ would block bluffcatchers. So in practice, AJ blocks 3 combos of JJ, while AQ blocks 4 combos of KQ.
Yeah I don't totally following the reasoning on #3. I get that AQ and AK have blockers to KQ, but do you really mean that I should be more willing to call with AK and AQ because of their blocker value rather than AJ for top 2-pair? Seems like a really roundabout way of reasoning.
1) we have no stats and no reads so we can't really make an exploitative play here. So If I am trying to play optimally I'm gonna try to avoid spots where I am folding an exploitatively high amount of the time. A lot of our sets and straights have raised by the river leaving us having to rely on aj for defense. Is it a great spot? no, but I am comfortable if it might be slightly negative ev to have a solid overall game.
2) Just an educated guess. Might be closer to 20-30 but it's not unreasonable.
3) Not sure I agree.
Also I disagree that "AJ is the top of our range" here considering we have 29 combos of actual better hands...
I'd also like to remind those itt who are advocating a call with AJ that in a vacuum scenario I have far more sympathy for that position. But in practice, against players in 25NL Zoom which is where this hand was played, people just don't go bonkers in spots like this without the goods. Playing exploitively is correct when villain's river barrelling range is so unbalanced, which I can virtually promise that it is in this case. That's why I just don't see how we can call with AJ in this spot.
If this was a 4 tabling reg, i concur, i think it's a (tight) fold. If it was a one tabling recreational player, i might well call the river bet...might. (The timing might influence me somewhat.) But the bet sizing makes me think villain knows you have are relatively strong (but weaker range than villain) and he's going for max value. This is one of those hands (vs a reg) where (if*) i call and lose to a straight or set, then i make notes on bet sizing (round numbers on turn and riv; riv around 80%psb.) And i make a note of his timing on turn and river too. Cos i know if I am going for value on the river and i think you're calling most of the time i am thinking about my bet sizing. And that might take 5-15 seconds.
* If i was hero, I likely tank for three seconds press call and if i lose I tell myself i did nothing wrong, but don't quite believe myself. If I'm right I doubtless sit out and touch my sexual apparatus for 6-12 seconds.
I think most of you are underestimating how strong hero's range actually is here. Since the board is rainbow and multiway on the flop, I doubt sets and straights get raised on earlier streets. Without knowing what villain has, we have 29 combos of sets and straights, and no more than 29 combos of all other hands: JTs, ATs, AJ, AQ, and a few Txss/87s. Therefore, a) going for a valuebet with any two pair in villain's shoes is probably too thin, and b) as hero, folding AJ is not "exploitable"; if we're only continuing with sets and straights then we're already defending at least 50% of our range.
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