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VARIANCE or DOUG POLKERY?!

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

VARIANCE or DOUG POLKERY?!

PLEASE, you must FORGIVE - for I am but a HUMBLE, HONEST man. A GOOD MAN. I sometimes like to do things such as take a shift down at the docs, moving crates of SHRIMP w/ the other Bulgarians. Or I might have a nice, hearty, bone-warming bowl of SOUP on a harsh winter's day.

Given all of the above, how may one lose 30 to 40 BUYINS due to VARIANCE alone?!?! I am a self admitted ASPIRING NOT LOSING PLAYER and yet have never even come CLOSE to such swings. It is mathematically possible, yes, but so is getting AA x times in a row...

This question now PLAGUES me because of a DOUGLAS POLK youtubes video I've witnessed. In this footage, Douglas says a player would go through SEVERAL such swings (obviously implicitly if they play enough volume etc).

My FRIENDS, what am I MISSING?!

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Brokenstars 1 year, 6 months ago

There is a lot of variance in poker and your downswings will be primarily governed by your winrate and standard deviation. A lower winrate and/or higher standard deviation will yield a higher probability along with larger potential downswings.

You can play around with the online poker variance calculator found on Primedope.

https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

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