Value/bluff ratio when raising ip a flop bet
Posted by ilares
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ilares
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Value/bluff ratio when raising ip a flop bet
Hey guys, i'm reading so GTO poker theory and i'm kinda confused on a point
Here the scenario: vilain raise preflop, we call ip, everybody else fold; vilain cbet, what value/bluff ratio should we have when we raise here?
So i first let Juanda talk:
so 2 bluff for 1 value;
but let's say vilain cbet 6bb on 8bb pot, we raise to 18bb, if vilain 3bet here to let's say 38bb, he risk 38bb to win 8+6+18=32bb, which leads him to need 38/70=0.54% Fold Equity to make an immediate profit
or with our 2 bluff / 1 value ratio, we will fold 2/3=67% of the time, and we let vilain exploitate us
so if he need 54% FE, to be unexplotiable, we should have a 1 bluff for 1 value, letting him 50% FE
so do we raise his cbet on the flop, being in position, with 2 bluff for 1 value or 1 bluff for 1 value ratio?
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Well have to call some of our "bluffs" as well, which is no problem, since we can fold them later in the hand.
Some of our "bluffs" will probably be semibluffs which we won't fold
ok guys, so you two usually raise 2 bluffs for 1 value hand? that seems like a lot of bluffs to me
and indeed, we will call some flushes draws, and fold like gutshots/back door flushdraws, didn't think of that on the first time
Second, Villain´s 3bet-range should be pretty tiny (if existent at all), otherwise he´s weakening his calling-range way too much so you could barrel off any2 on the turn, OR he´s way too bluff-heavy on the flop, so you could ship any2 on the flop.
Third, the basic rule why you can bluff so much on the flop is the following:
Imagine a river situation. $90 in the pot, you´re betting with a perfectly balanced 2:1-ratio (2 valuebets, 1 bluff for a potsized bet). Villain calls 50% and folds 50%.
=> Your bluffs are 0EV.
Now go one street back. $30 in the pot, you´re betting $30. If you´d be betting the turn with exact the same combos (2 valuebets, 1 bluff) you plan on betting the river with, Villain wouldn´t have any incentive to bluffcatch you, because he´s not getting the right odds to call! He had to invest $120 ($30 on the turn + $90 on the river) to win $150 ($30 + $30 + $90), which gives him odds of 1.25:1, demanding 44% equity - while he only has 33%!!
So his correct strategy would be to fold all his bluffcatchers on the turn. To prevent him from doing that you have to bluff more on the turn. How much more? Well, all the hands you´re getting a 0EV bluff on the river with, actually make profit on the turn, because you win his turnbet, while not giving anything back on the river. So, you can count the riverbluffs as valuebets on the turn!!
As your total riverbetting-range is 1.5x the amount of valuecombos (for a 2:1 ratio, offering 33% equity to Villain), you can take this number as your valuerange on the turn - and add another 50% bluffs (for a psb). That makes your turn-betting-range (overall) = VALUE * 1.5 * 1.5. That gives you a total betting-range on the turn of VALUE * 2.25, in other words you´re bluffing roughly the same amount of combos you´re valuebetting (= 1:1 value:bluffs).
Now, if you go another street back - to the flop, the same rule applies. Which means, your total betting-range on the flop is VALUE * 1.5^3 = VALUE * 3.375, in other words, you´re bluffing 2 combos for every valuecombo.
Example:
You´re getting to the river with 20 nutcombos. There´s $90 in the pot. You bet $90 with your 20 nut hands and another 10 bluffs. Villain is break-even on his bluffcatchers, so he calls 50% and folds 50%. His call is 0EV, as are your bluffs.
EV (call) = (1/3*180) + (2/3*-90) = 0
EV (bluff) = (1/2*90) + (1/2*-90) = 0
Now, you go back to the turn. You still have 20 nutcombos, but you know that you´ll profitably bet the river with 30 combos (1.5 * 20), so you take that as the baseline. While "counting" 30 valuecombos, you can now add another 15 bluffs, giving you a turn-betting-range of 45 combos. As you sill "only" have 20 nuts, you´re essentially bluffing with 25 combos, and Villain still can´t call any2, because his calls are break-even (as his only profit comes from you giving up the river in 33%):
EV (call) = (15/45 * 60) + (30/45)*((1/3*150) + (2/3*-120)) = 0
The same can now be applied to the flop, but I hope the example shows how it works.
Everything got clear?
ADD: I showed the principle for single bets, but if there´s enough stack left, you can apply the same formula for cbet-raises on the flop. Please note that the factor 1.5 applies to psb, if you´re betting less, you have to take different factors to multiply your valuebet-combos, like if you´re betting 2/3 on any street, you had to take the factor 1.4 instead of 1.5.
" Villain wouldn´t have any incentive to bluffcatch you, because he´s not
getting the right odds to call! He had to invest $120 ($30 on the turn +
$90 on the river) to win $150 ($30 + $30 + $90), which gives him odds
of 1.25:1, demanding 44% equity - while he only has 33%!!"
-first, you suppose that i will bet pot on the flop, turn and river
-second, you suppose that i will always bet river after a bet turn
those 2 assumptions can happen, but are not always true; so imo vilain can call turn and need way less than 44% equity
i think, most of the times, we 3/4 pot on 3 streets, and when we bet turn we bet 70-80% of the time on the river (imagine the case where we bluff JTs on K923s and we find a J on the river)
so we can't bluff that much on turn & flop; but i agree that most of the time, 2 bluff for 1 value combo when we raise ip is a good rule
"i don't totally agree with you"
Nah, in fact you are. :) Maybe I didn't express myself clearly enough ...
"-first, you suppose that i will bet pot on the flop, turn and river
-second, you suppose that i will always bet river after a bet turn"
I didn´t assume either, I just wanted to show how easy it would be for Villain to adjust if your ranges were unbalanced (i.e. never give up on the river).
Like, if you take the suggested 3/4 pot size on each street, then, by the river, when you bet a total polarized range, you should have 70% value and 30% bluffs (which are the odds Villain is getting on a 3/4 pot bet). That means, your total betting range is 1.42x your value-range. If you take that factor to the turn, you can bet your value range * 1.42 * 1.42 = V * 2, and on the flop you can bet V * (1.42^3) = V*2.9.
So you can bet 1.9 bluffs for every value combo on the flop.
"i think, most of the times, we 3/4 pot on 3 streets, and when we bet turn we bet 70-80% of the time on the river (imagine the case where we bluff JTs on K923s and we find a J on the river)"
Be careful. :) Against a perfectly balanced polarized river betting range your opponent has a 0EV call. That means, the money he is investing on the turn is invested ONLY for the odds you´re giving up the river (x/f), because once you bet he can fold (or call, doesn't matter) - so he essentially lost his turnbet. If you bet the turn 3/4 pot, odds are 1.75:1 for Villain, which means, he needs 30% equity. As his "equity" in fact is the ratio you´re giving up with, that means that you should continue with (exactly) 70% of your turn-range. If Villain knew that you would continue 80% (while still being balanced on the river), he should immediately fold the turn, because your range is too strong.Got clear now?
It's theory. :D Practice obv. is way more complex because of additional parameters like not 100% polarized ranges etc. ...
You can find a more in depth explanation at 130 in "Facing a flop 3-Bet" chapter
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