value betting vs tight reg

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

value betting vs tight reg

https://gg.gl/u7gs

Hey guys,

It probably looks I was so nitty in this hand. Let me go into player details.

This guy is playing 12tables, usually on a more nitty site. Preflop he rather calls than 3bets and he isnt not aggro preflop and postflop as well. Havent seen him bluffing the river (maybe in some small ball pots he did, but cant remember).
However, the main point is that, I dont expect many 88-99 to be in his range (maybe even TT) and AJs,AQ,AK type of hands are imo gonna fold to a river bet.
On the other hand, I believe that QQ+ are clear bets OTT, but since that he might be the nitty guy, it makes some sense for him to check those hands for protection.

Really not sure, but I am pretty confident that his overall 3b is on a lower side (my rough guess for his stats: 23/13 3b 5).
Maybe vs a smaller river bet he might find a call with AQ,AK and we dont care if he has also KK or AA there (if we got raised, we have an easy fold). So that might be the way to go.. because if my assumptions are wrong, I am missing a ton of value...

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