Value Betting River - Too Thin?
Posted by nat2r
Posted by
nat2r
posted in
Low Stakes
Value Betting River - Too Thin?
Blinds: $0.02/$0.05 (6 Players)
BB: $2.24
UTG: $5.17
MP: $3.95
CO: $9.76
BN: $4.68
SB: $4.83 (Hero)
UTG: $5.17
MP: $3.95
CO: $9.76
BN: $4.68
SB: $4.83 (Hero)
Villain in this hand (button) is a very loose, mildly passive recreational player playing a 53/12, with 0 3bs and 45% CB rate over 154 hands.
Preflop
($0.07)
Hero is SB with
A
K
, , , , , , ,
Open slightly larger OOP, MP is 40/20 (5 hands).
Flop
($0.70)
7
2
K
,
Turn
($1.80)
7
2
K
6
,
River
($4.64)
7
2
K
6
T
,
This is probably the worst card than can come out for me. Completes all draws including KT...but given his stats, hes going to have a ton of offsuit hands here. He's only folding to cbets 25% of the time, so he's tending to call down weak. Thoughts here?
Final Pot
BN
lost and shows a pair of Kings.
SB wins and shows a pair of Kings.
SB wins $8.99
Rake is $0.47
SB wins and shows a pair of Kings.
SB wins $8.99
Rake is $0.47
Villain shows KhJd.
Loading 9 Comments...
Feels like river is thin, he can have a lot of good hands here (more than 30 combos), so we need same amount of bluffcatcher calls (KQ/KJ/K8-K9s not enough, so he needs to be peeling pretty much all Kx vs shove). Will rec do it? This card is scary indeed, so I'm not sure
Fold vs cbet not represent situation well enough, some peopel might cb small amount that's why low number or running hot.
edit: wrong thread
But in he OP you said you only have 154 hands
BTW I would bet river smaller and fold to a raise because this type of villain doesn't raise unless he is sure he got you beat, at least imho
looks like betting small is worst option with SPR ~50% bet left. I mean minbetting is solid and high EV I suppose, because some people even will call 98 vs it(not shove)
Jeff_
lol I haven't pay attention to the stack sizes, my bad
Sorry I made two posts and got them mixed up ��
I don't think you're too thin at all. You said your opponent calls you down light, in some cases with just A high so you should be betting 3 streets unless the run out is just horrid imo. Sure he might have a straight or a flush, but he could also have a bunch of paired hands that he just can't let go of. If you're not gonna get max value from your premium hands against a player that calls down light, then the value you're missing out on is probably much more than the money you'd be losing here when he's lucky enough to have improved to a straight or flush by the river. Your play is totally fine imo.
Not betting this river is really missing value. Especially at NL5 and against this villain.
Agreed. And I can understand the thought process of that 10 looking scary, but if he has it oh well. Sometimes the player just clicking buttons in search of a good time stumbles into that good time.
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