Value betting on 3 streets (river question using CREV)
Posted by Mike76
Posted by
Mike76
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Mid Stakes
Value betting on 3 streets (river question using CREV)
I did an analysis on CREV where BTN opens and BB calls and board runs Kc7h2d 8c 9h and BTN cbets flop/turn/river for a standard size of 2/3 pot. BB flats preflop with 406 combos, or 34.5% of hands (88-22,ATo-A2o,KJo-K6o,QJo-Q8o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o,A8s-A5s,K9s-K5s,Q9s-Q5s,J9s-J6s,J4s-J2s,T9s,T6s,98s,87s,76s,65s).
BB defends 51% on the flop and then meets the minimum defense frequency on the turn, calling with 59.5%.
When BB checks to BTN on the river, I get to the conclusion that betting anything less than K9 for value would be a mistake when I compare both options by setting a 50% weight to betting. In fact, K9 is indifferent between the 2 options if we don't call a c/r shove with it from a balanced range of sets/65s/bluffs. If we call the c/r with K9, then we do better when checking.
Those results really surprise me but I was wondering if that is standard or not. There is a chance I made some mistake, as I'm not using CREV regularly, even if I verified my ranges afterwards. I get that we should cbet a tighter range on the river when villain slowplays all his nuts on earlier streets.
Is the BB's calling range too tight? Anything else I'm missing?
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Best thing is to set up a few strategys that can be possible in the playerpool and then decide when you have to chk and when to bet. It is also good so you can see the different between the strategys.
My experience is for example in the fr vs nits you wont get any value by betcalling OTR but on the other side you see player they dont shove 22 or they have a wide chkraising range otf.
I think that all has big effect on our river strategy.
Maybe you set up slightly tightish ranges otr but K9 should make you ton of money betting 3 streets. In my experience V has rare % x/r here since we have a big range advantage.
Also nowadays ppl tend to flat more OFFSUITED vs minraise so I think your flatting range u gave BB is a bit too tight.
Regarding BB's flatting range, I didn't mention in my first post that it was versus a 2.5x open, I think BB should defend wider versus a min-r. But that's certainly possible that this calling range is not wide enough versus a 2.5x open.
I agree with you that looking at different strategies from the BB makes sense. It is really time consuming though, and that's in part related to my lack of skills for using CREV.
Our main range advantage on the river is JT (16 combos versus 1), and 65 (16 combos versus 3), in the scenario that we bet all of them 100% of the time on flop/turn. Unless BB 3bets 100% with 88/99 (I was assuming he 3bet 99+ for value in my simulation), he just lacks those straights in his range, as we shouldn't bet 99 on flop/turn 100% of the time, and we probably check flop or turn a high % with KK. I'm not sure how those straights combos in BTN's range limit BB from c/raising the river, I need to look more precisely at what should be BTN's range for betting the river to find out.
I know it's different in game, as people can be calling much wider than what I supposed in my sim, but my main point was that it surprised me how tight our range should be in theory for betting that river if BB is playing somewhat GTO (I don't claim I was even close to solving for a GTO approach in this analysis).
Thanks for your response
The board runout gives Villain (if he "never" raises pre-river) so many strong combos (2p+) that it's by far not surprising that AK is no valuebet anymore.
Thanks for this question which I found interesting, I came up with a K7 river bet to be indifferent to checking. Interesting to note that this river card leaves BTN river range with very few air combos, therefore it might be ok for BB to fold more than MDF. If BB does happen to overfold then BTN could turn 9x into a bluff :P, even though 9x check back wins around 5bb here, (on my analysis)
Isnt BB having here alot K2s,78 to make K7 a std valuebet?
Thats a few combos, + he has also few stronger hands, + he rarely calls with worse at this point.
Basically you need more than 50% equity versus his calling range. and it seems that K7 has more or less 50% equity.
You can give him even all combos of KQo/KJo, your K7 has barely 51% equity.
https://gyazo.com/d081ad1d13c33b8a2b8d6b3e090f0044
"Basically you need more than 50% equity versus his calling range."
I might be wrong, but I don't think that's correct, because villain is going to have a c/r range and we lose money compared to checking when he does c/r, supposing that he is balanced (which should leave us indifferent). So we need more than 50% equity versus his calling range, and the more he c/r with a balanced range, the more equity we need.
so the worst hand to value bet 2/3 pot here is K7? we x back AK? or do we go 1/2 or 1/3 with AK?
Well, in my sim, we were not even able to value bet K7 if I remember correctly. And AK would be an easy check back under the assumptions stipulated. It is different in game as people will likely c/r before the river (leaving less strong hands in their range) and they can defend the BB wider by calling, etc.
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